AI · resolved market
Will Analog Devices' Q2 Industrial revenue be above $1.8B?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf5f3e41fbaf62b3eff26d08659fa1f08cad2da63c90571c518f09b0b18e2f11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 41c | 826.88$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.75 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 241.56$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -61%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 58c | 173.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 61c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed No | 49c | 159.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 104$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 48c | 69.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 58c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8295…610cbacked No | 62c | 43.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…985abacked No | 64c | 40.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 62c | 30.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…3bedbacked No | 60c | 21.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…6be5backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Analog Devices' Q2 Industrial revenue be above $1.8B?this page
- Will Analog Devices' Q2 Industrial revenue be above $1.7B?Yes won
- Will Analog Devices' Q2 Industrial revenue be above $1.9B?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.