AI · resolved market
Will Analog Devices' Q2 Industrial revenue be above $1.7B?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x421069b619525ca184364b645f4a23056c9f654f6bdba2b717f01845c32db949
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 31c | 793.44$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.5 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 4c | 489.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 15c | 430.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 68c | 230$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 41c | 160.79$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked Yes | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed No | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…c4a1backed Yes | 67c | 60.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…865bbacked Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Yes | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…b134backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…77a3backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 38c | 28.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09b…0a70backed No | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7444…451bbacked Yes | 67c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3107…fe91backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…6f38backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…0de2backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…d9b1backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9891…d78dbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea16…93d8backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Analog Devices' Q2 Industrial revenue be above $1.7B?this page
- Will Analog Devices' Q2 Industrial revenue be above $1.8B?No won
- Will Analog Devices' Q2 Industrial revenue be above $1.9B?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.