TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$215,597
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$212,915

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,597 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x955c…990fbacked Yes63c28,421$17,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,579.157157.7%41 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb94c…b5b5backed No45c19,945$8,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,904.24746.8%22 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No16c12,326$1,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,981.478225.6%21 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed No32c8,222$2,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,619.6123639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked No34c7,198$2,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,441.2329642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked No43c7,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00032739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe477…b1b8backed No1c5,966$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick28cpaid+31.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No24c5,115$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.3811924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes59c5,035$2,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,064.77538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed No47c4,289$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.728247.6%39 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No25c3,912$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.5510339.8%41 W · 62 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked No4c3,499$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.2412631%39 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No35c3,343$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.494429.5%13 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No26c2,886$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.3510139.6%40 W · 61 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9214…a803backed Yes62c2,317$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.33243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes51c2,071$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.1718746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No26c1,925$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.4412442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No20c1,746$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.214843.8%21 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed No13c1,500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes76c1,490$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.642536%9 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes33c1,420$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.636639.4%26 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes54c1,323$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.593423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No54c1,268$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.721030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-57.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No27c1,176$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.2916737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd9…1024backed Yes48c1,152$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.565234.6%18 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No24c1,101$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.810645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3104238.1%16 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No17c944$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.547537.3%28 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes66c929.07$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.4415149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf508…30a5backed Yes57c875.95$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.661855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed No45c870.65$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.632050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ce…9811backed No40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004250%21 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked No15c699$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4123321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No12c682.77$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.223046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No23c673.4$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.1910436.5%38 W · 66 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No37c635.57$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.93319.7%3 W · 28 L-7.5wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-84.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No10c634.01$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5711240.2%45 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes70c623.79$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.4429735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf82f…8137backed No42c621.03$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.454643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x882c…9133backed Yes71c614.27$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes66c600$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2061338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No39c589.28$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.7310549.5%52 W · 53 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6408…d5c6backed No3c552.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2313.2%1 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-83.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x917d…601abacked Yes42c546.66$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.435729.8%17 W · 40 L+0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf50f…ccc1backed Yes74c541.63$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.633100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No35c527.73$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.983748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No5c518.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.043250%16 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No44c500.06$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.0126431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42e6…8e78backed No46c481.56$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2217860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x91d8…2a3ebacked Yes68c445.02$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No34c436.47$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.613034.6%45 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5450…2a78backed No31c422.11$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.112420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes60c419.67$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.5813820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No36c406.12$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.854436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No8c402.1$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.332013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cdf…12d4backed No30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb5f…c111backed Yes53c371.28$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.53129%9 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No31c370$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.58653.5%46 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No8c327.53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.482042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f23…dc0cbacked No37c304.97$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.481546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df9…3a84backed No41c300.13$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.491136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1321936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked No52c299.99$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.8116040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No19c288.51$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.873545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed Yes75c279.06$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.069034.4%31 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad43…1427backed No41c277.65$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-72.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed No12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.183046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa532…cc03backed No11c250$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed No33c249.23$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.292917.2%5 W · 24 L-5.4wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-74.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb70b…6087backed Yes70c243.8$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9611633.6%39 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No36c242.55$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2213534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No33c221.83$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.823545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4267…3e8ebacked No34c210.07$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbb0…bd65backed No17c203.51$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.641838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00f7…4476backed No41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8280%0 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xac7a…414fbacked No44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-66.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe362…602bbacked No49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked Yes67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78bd…300dbacked Yes48c199.94$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.97757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No32c199$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.416747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No18c199$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.243040%12 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb2…a30cbacked No15c197.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6260%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No37c185$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.359951.5%51 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed No52c179.25$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.211816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No51c177.95$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.798638.4%33 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No20c176.77$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.862356.5%13 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No19c170.07$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.484560%27 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes73c170$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.94930.6%15 W · 34 L-8.1wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed No11c160$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.890%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1241…081bbacked Yes62c159.62$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.59650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No40c158.08$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.234748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No12c151$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.553557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x736f…deaabacked No34c148$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.32425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-63.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No30c145$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.941,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes56c130.81$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.356150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No10c130$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.533246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No27c122.38$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.311643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9f3…d2acbacked No16c112$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.92119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-88.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed No46c110$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.02862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1536…7f40backed No48c109$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.32757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.