Movies · resolved market
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e58c05b833863433e5e4b81afd0aa46ce39373e6999b90cf1769aaf3fa7b2a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $215,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $212,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 63c | 28,421$17,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,579.15 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed No | 45c | 19,945$8,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,904.2 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 16c | 12,326$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,981.47 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 32c | 8,222$2,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,619.61 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 34c | 7,198$2,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,441.23 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 43c | 7,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…b1b8backed No | 1c | 5,966$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 24c | 5,115$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.38 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 59c | 5,035$2,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,064.7 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 47c | 4,289$2,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,012.72 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 25c | 3,912$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.55 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked No | 4c | 3,499$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.24 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 35c | 3,343$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.49 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 26c | 2,886$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.35 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9214…a803backed Yes | 62c | 2,317$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.3 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 51c | 2,071$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.17 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 1,925$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.44 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 20c | 1,746$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.21 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 1,490$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.64 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 33c | 1,420$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.63 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 54c | 1,323$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.59 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 54c | 1,268$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 1,176$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.29 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 48c | 1,152$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.56 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 24c | 1,101$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.8 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 17c | 944$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.54 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 66c | 929.07$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.44 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed Yes | 57c | 875.95$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.66 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed No | 45c | 870.65$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.63 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed No | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked No | 15c | 699$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 12c | 682.77$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 673.4$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.19 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 37c | 635.57$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.93 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -7.5wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 10c | 634.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 70c | 623.79$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.44 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed No | 42c | 621.03$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.45 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…9133backed Yes | 71c | 614.27$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 66c | 600$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 39c | 589.28$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.73 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d5c6backed No | 3c | 552.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 42c | 546.66$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.43 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf50f…ccc1backed Yes | 74c | 541.63$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 35c | 527.73$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.98 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 5c | 518.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 44c | 500.06$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.01 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed No | 46c | 481.56$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…2a3ebacked Yes | 68c | 445.02$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 34c | 436.47$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…2a78backed No | 31c | 422.11$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.11 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 60c | 419.67$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.58 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 36c | 406.12$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.85 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 402.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…12d4backed No | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5f…c111backed Yes | 53c | 371.28$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.5 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 31c | 370$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 327.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f23…dc0cbacked No | 37c | 304.97$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.48 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…3a84backed No | 41c | 300.13$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 52c | 299.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.81 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 19c | 288.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 75c | 279.06$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed No | 41c | 277.65$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed No | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed No | 33c | 249.23$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 70c | 243.8$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 36c | 242.55$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.22 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 33c | 221.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4267…3e8ebacked No | 34c | 210.07$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 17c | 203.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed No | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked Yes | 48c | 199.94$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 32c | 199$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 18c | 199$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 15c | 197.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 37c | 185$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed No | 52c | 179.25$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 51c | 177.95$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.79 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 20c | 176.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 19c | 170.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 73c | 170$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1241…081bbacked Yes | 62c | 159.62$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 40c | 158.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 12c | 151$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked No | 34c | 148$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 145$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 56c | 130.81$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 27c | 122.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 16c | 112$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed No | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1536…7f40backed No | 48c | 109$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?this page
- Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m?No won
- Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m?No won
- Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.