Movies · resolved market
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8864519713437ef796494b79052b5292c9bfe14f753b1a1b7dc09b04bf8ad0e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 34c | 20,059$6,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,753.52 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 3c | 12,839$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.05 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 32c | 7,416$2,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.56 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed No | 55c | 5,021$2,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,245.01 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 18c | 4,716$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.37 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 68c | 4,101$2,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.45 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53c…67a5backed Yes | 13c | 2,365$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.84 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 12c | 2,197$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.34 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d5c6backed Yes | 4c | 2,133$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 1,934$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.02 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 63c | 1,826$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.1 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 33c | 1,718$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.94 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 37c | 1,715$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 1,546$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.96 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 1,446$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.76 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 1,430$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.96 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 1,218$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.89 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Yes | 19c | 1,071$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.77 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 821.95$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.97 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 69c | 700.01$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 593.55$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.96 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 527.73$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.87 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 8c | 523.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 12c | 459.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 64c | 437.21$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.48 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 429.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 413.84$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.7 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 43c | 374.65$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.18 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 359$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 19c | 338$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 40c | 310$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.69 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe187…6468backed Yes | 9c | 309.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 70c | 299.97$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 78c | 249.87$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 67c | 236.77$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.13 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 199$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 175$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 65c | 163.55$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 59c | 158.08$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb187…3abfbacked Yes | 34c | 149.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…df3abacked Yes | 34c | 149.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 148.62$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 55c | 130$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked Yes | 12c | 122.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 114.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9bf…3eb6backed Yes | 27c | 99.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…2a78backed Yes | 31c | 89.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 17c | 83.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 80c | 79.85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed Yes | 32c | 78.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…20a4backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f73…04d0backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…ff6ebacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…1202backed No | 63c | 49.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 68c | 48.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 47.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 63c | 37.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed No | 77c | 33.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed Yes | 38c | 33.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x605e…8b39backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 69c | 22.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 70c | 21.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 78c | 14.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?this page
- Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m?No won
- Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m?No won
- Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.