TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,210
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,651

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,210 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb1ca…1705backed No24c7,197$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,476.458042.5%34 W · 46 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes72c5,913$4,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,270.6715150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fd…7d31backed Yes64c5,305$3,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,386.17520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.41per pick61cpaid-53%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No31c3,132$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,156.7522833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No37c1,687$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.016152.5%32 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9578…f066backed No59c1,128$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.461291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick63cpaid+49.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes52c976.65$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.7412643.7%55 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No34c945.99$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.356750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No27c923.98$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.8914729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed No50c776.8$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.45350.9%27 W · 26 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+18.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes68c655.25$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.1213625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No44c587.44$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.5933421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No35c555.26$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.41717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x048a…9be4backed Yes70c540$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3782528%7 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No40c533.56$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.469647.9%46 W · 50 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes76c531.71$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.083647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed No14c515.26$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.13742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed No55c513.99$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.065141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No30c470.38$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.5733238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No25c443.25$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.824831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No45c400$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22010622.6%24 W · 82 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed No15c375.98$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.386038.3%23 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No26c347$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.786636.4%24 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No37c318.8$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.324850%24 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf057…ab54backed No47c310.01$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.393732.4%12 W · 25 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb939…ed05backed Yes70c300$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e6f…eb72backed Yes69c300$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20740%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No13c299.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.995547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No40c256.93$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.8910946.8%51 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…c146backed Yes6c254.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c2…41bebacked Yes57c253.63$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.31742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes43c250$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.47437.8%28 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes51c236.95$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.958332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes59c229$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.778541.2%35 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed No51c220$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.896311.1%7 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-71.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No35c219$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.0413143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes58c215$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.755839.7%23 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No36c200$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1289326.9%25 W · 68 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbea0…e19dbacked Yes41c192.1$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.633672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.6wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x36f7…5f09backed Yes63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No46c155.19$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1866914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No37c151$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.552751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes70c150$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10513919.4%27 W · 112 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed No32c145.48$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.272360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+83.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8a65…a3debacked Yes70c142.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb141…aa3bbacked No32c139.42$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.82060%12 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No32c139.05$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.9816833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No43c138$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3610245.1%46 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes42c126$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.927326%19 W · 54 L-10.6wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc320…3d45backed Yes63c124$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1290%0 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No24c120$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.89147.3%43 W · 48 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No48c119.56$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9710034%34 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes52c113.61$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2713546.7%63 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64e8…b506backed No32c109.38$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0640…5ea2backed No31c109$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.251225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-44.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbaf5…1b80backed Yes69c102.03$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x299c…7e23backed Yes70c101.87$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.311338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No18c101.42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.264143.9%18 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Yes69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.82050%10 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403438.2%13 W · 21 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-32.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.6wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+27.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721580%12 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+69.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed No33c94.33$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.23756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No29c91.19$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.353452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+43.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x571c…b9f9backed No39c91.18$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.082161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No49c89$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3815431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc15…cca6backed Yes41c86$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.521118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.28per pick46cpaid-68.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1f7a…fff1backed Yes70c84$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.820%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No23c80.7$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.339343%40 W · 53 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No36c80$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.25637.5%21 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes44c79.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.794055%22 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No29c76.55$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.572941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e5a…f0e0backed No34c70.58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.58540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc676…f35cbacked Yes45c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.81136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed No32c65$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.23855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes42c64$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8812231.1%38 W · 84 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No44c57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.924156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes47c57$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.047338.4%28 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5568…9ea3backed No52c57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.36540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No32c51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.689819.4%19 W · 79 L-10.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-55.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb2b…96dbbacked No44c50.46$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.26650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdcd…0fe6backed No46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.82458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cec…ff6ebacked No20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+222.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4629…f3b1backed Yes58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.22653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No31c49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0644935.2%158 W · 291 L-37.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd8fa…581fbacked No33c48.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+133.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a51…bf4cbacked No34c44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.041957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1946…6367backed No35c43.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.331145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c4f…e321backed Yes69c41.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.672360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3008…3c76backed No54c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ee…a2e3backed No33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c62…ca89backed No33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.81050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eb5…c246backed No34c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.41241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.64847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb598…14fcbacked No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.11163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked Yes56c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.62871.4%20 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No32c38.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0212545.6%57 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x637c…a5d5backed Yes42c36.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.