Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb76e436f923b90282887ff08e30caeb35498ac897d9556369f240f2be21f71cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 24c | 7,197$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,476.45 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 72c | 5,913$4,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,270.67 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed Yes | 64c | 5,305$3,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,386.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 31c | 3,132$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,156.75 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 37c | 1,687$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.01 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 59c | 1,128$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.46 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 52c | 976.65$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.74 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 34c | 945.99$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.35 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 27c | 923.98$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.89 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 50c | 776.8$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.4 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 68c | 655.25$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.12 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 44c | 587.44$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.59 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 35c | 555.26$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.4 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed Yes | 70c | 540$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 40c | 533.56$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.46 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 76c | 531.71$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.08 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 14c | 515.26$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed No | 55c | 513.99$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.06 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 30c | 470.38$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.57 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 25c | 443.25$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.8 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 15c | 375.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.38 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 26c | 347$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.78 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 37c | 318.8$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.32 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 47c | 310.01$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.39 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb939…ed05backed Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Yes | 69c | 300$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 13c | 299.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.99 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 256.93$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.89 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…c146backed Yes | 6c | 254.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…41bebacked Yes | 57c | 253.63$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 43c | 250$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 51c | 236.95$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 59c | 229$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.77 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 51c | 220$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.89 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 219$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.04 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 58c | 215$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked Yes | 41c | 192.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…5f09backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 46c | 155.19$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.18 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 37c | 151$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.55 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 139 | 19.4%27 W · 112 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed No | 32c | 145.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.27 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…a3debacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 32c | 139.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 32c | 139.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 43c | 138$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.36 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 42c | 126$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…3d45backed Yes | 63c | 124$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 24c | 120$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 48c | 119.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 52c | 113.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed No | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0640…5ea2backed No | 31c | 109$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf5…1b80backed Yes | 69c | 102.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7e23backed Yes | 70c | 101.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 18c | 101.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed No | 33c | 94.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 29c | 91.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 39c | 91.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 49c | 89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 41c | 86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7a…fff1backed Yes | 70c | 84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 23c | 80.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 29c | 76.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…f0e0backed No | 34c | 70.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 32c | 65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 44c | 57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 47c | 57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5568…9ea3backed No | 52c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 32c | 51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…96dbbacked No | 44c | 50.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…0fe6backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…ff6ebacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +222.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked No | 33c | 48.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked No | 34c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 35c | 43.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 69c | 41.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed No | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ee…a2e3backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c62…ca89backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…c246backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb598…14fcbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 32c | 38.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637c…a5d5backed Yes | 42c | 36.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?this page
- Will Haley Stevens win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.