TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x36f7…5f09

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: CS2, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 54 out of 100; worst Commodities at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$51.52
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+203%+$60.91
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$124.33
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+228.3%+$114.13
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+92.7%+$46.35
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politicslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+1,150%+$115
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+74%+$103.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$53.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+50.9%+$152.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$42.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.