TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Ademola Adeleke win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,593
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,970

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,593 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6efa…495abacked Yes59c7,307$4,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,003.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ba…f96ebacked Yes72c4,035$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No37c2,081$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.2210646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed No37c1,842$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.467129.6%21 W · 50 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb635…f0fdbacked Yes58c1,783$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.751566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf079…874dbacked Yes70c1,417$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.033100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+135.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No21c889.6$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.7934354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No38c814.71$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.43369.7%23 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+22.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No31c811.64$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.6110151.5%52 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No43c731.92$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.632354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked Yes69c724.64$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.64366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No42c693.06$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.2127143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No29c671$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.87919%15 W · 64 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No28c565$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.411770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes45c535.92$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.089850%49 W · 49 L+16.1wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+40.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No37c526.22$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.6923551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No21c525.88$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4952850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No24c502.75$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.4917330.1%52 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes50c497.48$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.7414637%54 W · 92 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f0…c45abacked Yes53c490.57$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No31c482.62$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.518348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No33c472.51$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6839952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No36c435.32$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9236055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked No35c434.61$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.112030%6 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No45c429$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.053842.1%16 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6ce…7765backed Yes72c417.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.24475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+38.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No43c383.98$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.0313243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No42c374.24$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.391250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No18c368.62$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1224637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No32c367.72$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7410038%38 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f7…5f09backed Yes62c323.21$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.21450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No27c305.91$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.989254.3%50 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecd1…4c52backed Yes65c305.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.36450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No22c305$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5518762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No39c284.68$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6946330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xacfa…0298backed Yes73c275.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-31.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes44c250$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.11136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No13c249.29$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4631152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes55c226.32$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.341136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No36c209$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.171,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No33c203.4$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9314959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5013446.3%62 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No39c199.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.611353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2064…0ab1backed Yes68c199.99$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No19c197.5$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.161,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No26c196.2$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4828558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed Yes58c194.43$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.553943.6%17 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0169…0096backed Yes67c193.28$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.897731.2%24 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No39c183.21$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.548655.8%48 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b18…efaebacked No49c161.77$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.73862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed No40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.51020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-63.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No25c146.01$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.232958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No21c125.39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3215558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d02…2ad3backed No25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+130.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No42c119.44$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5299017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No49c110$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.926632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x073e…8416backed No39c109.18$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.45714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-77.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No38c108.08$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4722355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No38c105$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.94926.5%13 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-43.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No29c103$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4135258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No39c103$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7310734.6%37 W · 70 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes67c102.63$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8788448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeed8…35f0backed No47c101.42$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.032536%9 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x571c…b9f9backed No45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2981…698fbacked Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9047…7663backed Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No37c99.8$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.461435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-46.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x949e…07fcbacked Yes48c94.77$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No44c94$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3618445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbed…a665backed No39c83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.73450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No36c70.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5610844.4%48 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No42c69.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2915237.5%57 W · 95 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes64c62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.14146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121650%8 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No42c58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3616051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed Yes70c57.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.144452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No22c56.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.283467.6%23 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2564…f258backed No37c56.72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.92812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-62.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No43c55.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8316254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No34c52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.688142%34 W · 47 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195952.5%31 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198743.7%38 W · 49 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9129…dd8ebacked Yes50c46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+36.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed No44c45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-55.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No48c43.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2113348.1%64 W · 69 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No37c43.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.977954.4%43 W · 36 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x290e…1e65backed No38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd42…26c0backed Yes80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc09b…38e2backed No36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.733537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…9aeabacked No36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cf6…b886backed Yes80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ce…b784backed Yes79c37.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No43c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.887955.7%44 W · 35 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed No31c34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.542646.2%12 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d5a…02eabacked Yes51c33.06$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No43c30.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0214656.2%82 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed96…d6edbacked Yes78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick75cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4629…f3b1backed No47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.951070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+39.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc975…1983backed No37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.