World Politics · resolved market
Will Colin Sutton win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66ca87795a6cf494c139217d7c89ad8ed3a589b81cf4e0ff9aa643d8d6e5b6f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 5c | 6,564$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.11 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 13c | 2,325$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 48c | 761.72$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.75 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 603.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…99e9backed No | 17c | 521.73$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfd…9227backed No | 17c | 471.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 455.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 3c | 405.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…560ebacked No | 4c | 349.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 40c | 250.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc532…3b9dbacked No | 13c | 249$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked No | 12c | 228.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 78c | 217.92$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 13c | 213.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 25c | 210.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.81 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 176.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 172.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1526…d77cbacked Yes | 69c | 166.47$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…d11fbacked Yes | 71c | 156.02$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…9c63backed Yes | 70c | 142.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 16c | 140.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…c8d8backed Yes | 71c | 140.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…5f09backed Yes | 73c | 137.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 12c | 127.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 10c | 119.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 26c | 115.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…4811backed Yes | 65c | 106.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed No | 51c | 106.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 56c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 23c | 90.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked No | 53c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 52c | 71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…f768backed No | 30c | 65.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 52c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 74c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…c3b1backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 30c | 47.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 34c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e7…08a2backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…b7e7backed Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed No | 31c | 36.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc90b…1638backed Yes | 46c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…82f5backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…a085backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…967cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Colin Sutton win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election?this page
- Will Beth Jones win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election?No won
- Will Marcus Howard Pearcey win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election?No won
- Will Martin Schmierer win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election?No won
- Will Matthew Taylor win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.