Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Haley Stevens win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7900b6dc4e7127b83f04a6b1c29a4ba3a93beec444a8d086831415252ffb16f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed No | 67c | 1,884$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 24c | 1,750$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.54 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 39c | 1,741$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.2 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd261…9205backed No | 55c | 1,197$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 30c | 1,129$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.1 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 73c | 1,109$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.89 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…144cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,104$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.11 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 1,084$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.2 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc4…7760backed No | 70c | 864.94$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 28c | 797$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.45 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 31c | 588$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.72 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 18c | 531.71$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.57 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 512.5$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.25 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 500.06$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.59 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 22c | 495.36$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.24 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 387$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.14 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 40c | 309$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.82 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 49c | 274.47$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.21 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 74c | 273.65$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 28c | 269$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.57 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 27c | 267.36$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.29 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 262.24$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.95 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 42c | 260$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.4 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 252.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.32 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 51c | 250$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.71 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9c…dfacbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +748.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2edd…4188backed Yes | 29c | 162.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 160$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 157$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 30c | 156.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 72c | 146.94$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 121.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.59 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4b…6b9dbacked No | 74c | 107.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 52c | 104.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb598…14fcbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 53c | 97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 75c | 92.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa65…9297backed No | 55c | 91.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…e799backed Yes | 35c | 84.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec17…0af9backed Yes | 35c | 84.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 80.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ac…7f76backed Yes | 45c | 76.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 60c | 76.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 74.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 28c | 72.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 60c | 69.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…f0e0backed Yes | 33c | 63.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 31c | 59.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 58.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes | 51c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed No | 57c | 56.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 31c | 55.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 74c | 51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fed…e9cabacked Yes | 32c | 46.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 44c | 43.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 64c | 43.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 42.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaff…e3adbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 45c | 39.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 48c | 34.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 41c | 29.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 46c | 27.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fee…2e1abacked No | 54c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7a…fff1backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 69c | 20.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 20.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 20.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…5a56backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 18.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Haley Stevens win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?this page
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.