NBA · resolved market
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15ad2a7e3628de54d1b936bd4333bf133d120e3185b104b3dd79e4391b875e42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x225b…422abacked Yes | 41c | 398$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 8c | 357.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked No | 65c | 231.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes | 46c | 149.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…21efbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…9c8dbacked No | 50c | 101$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd2…aafebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 55c | 78.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 67c | 78.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…d371backed Yes | 34c | 73.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 32c | 67.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c5…4739backed Yes | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 65c | 61.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 57.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6197…9977backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…b23ebacked Yes | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…76c9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529b…33babacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ae…ac55backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…fcffbacked Yes | 41c | 34.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b39…a8c1backed No | 64c | 31.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 39c | 27.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…9778backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…fa87backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37aa…01f4backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…3404backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.