Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21593df6ff0ba9ab13b8a6730c9a1bee9bf85ac92a1a694a3c5384ecf9cd7425
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes | 11c | 9,764$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.12 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 17c | 2,944$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.65 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea9…b6b8backed Yes | 40c | 2,400$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,848$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.91 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 47c | 1,829$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.17 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,068$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 31c | 1,003$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.06 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 60c | 907.13$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.85 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 5c | 847.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8768…dd9bbacked No | 62c | 711.97$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.43 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 9c | 679.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 54c | 659.15$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.94 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 19c | 643.39$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.09 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 536$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 7c | 508.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b58…a73fbacked No | 46c | 408.64$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.3 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 372.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 12c | 364.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 39c | 363.26$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 79c | 298$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcf…950ebacked Yes | 8c | 291.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 275.93$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.71 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1a…837ebacked No | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 61cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 14c | 214.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa898…71c1backed Yes | 8c | 187.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 187.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked Yes | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…3b52backed Yes | 10c | 146.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 139.81$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…26bbbacked Yes | 11c | 138.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 137.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 129$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 10c | 123.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 64c | 106.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b87…3e8dbacked No | 65c | 104.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…e142backed No | 53c | 102.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d8…6470backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc19b…b3f8backed No | 70c | 70.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked Yes | 31c | 66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4b…83e2backed Yes | 38c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 57c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…0b0fbacked Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed Yes | 35c | 57.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 36c | 57.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 54c | 52.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 32c | 51.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae1…389ebacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14fe…cdb9backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x114d…661fbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…3895backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b39…a8c1backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfe…0ca7backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ed…7ee9backed No | 55c | 33.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…2acbbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060d…d746backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4442…238cbacked No | 58c | 27.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 64c | 18.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.