Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f0b9082b8971e5a4a52f18e540b77d5c272b30b8f4315d048ee0f8e600cfd9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes | 4c | 6,306$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.8 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,800$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 18c | 1,236$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.57 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…91f1backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 4c | 935.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 750.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 750$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 9c | 720$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8768…dd9bbacked No | 76c | 719.15$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.72 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 643.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a6…faf4backed Yes | 6c | 552.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 69c | 510$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.28 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 426.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 3c | 378.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcf…950ebacked Yes | 6c | 236$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 8c | 204$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 10c | 162.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 162$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed No | 76c | 140.56$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 31c | 99.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 23c | 94.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 15c | 90.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…a834backed Yes | 12c | 86.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed No | 69c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9c…b887backed No | 76c | 66.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…cc3bbacked Yes | 26c | 60.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…c50bbacked Yes | 31c | 60.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6985…afdfbacked No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 33c | 52.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc318…d82abacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…80acbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…5130backed No | 67c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.