TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$59,351
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,393

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,351 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed No41c6,219$2,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,531.4593840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdac5…ae24backed No51c5,465$2,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,783.5119855.6%110 W · 88 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes54c4,571$2,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.1929747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked No52c2,755$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.482638.5%10 W · 16 L-5.8wins-0.22per pick61cpaid-45.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xf189…8e47backed Yes60c2,100$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.073857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed No3c1,962$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4711212.5%14 W · 98 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked No56c1,792$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No24c1,376$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.4427322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…3296backed Yes47c1,115$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.7125661.3%157 W · 99 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked No55c1,050$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.6111736.8%43 W · 74 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No57c928.39$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.1839034.4%134 W · 256 L-33.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed Yes49c900$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4592138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb28…b1a2backed No14c699.01$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.39151.6%47 W · 44 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes49c650$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33313131.3%41 W · 90 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5254…891bbacked Yes50c602.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.87850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4388…5050backed Yes32c596.28$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40517752%92 W · 85 L+20.4wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+33.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7a99…c413backed No68c499.99$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No23c481.39$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1430839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88aa…ea6fbacked No57c438.51$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.282343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8bf…8ecebacked No51c425$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.75540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Yes58c396.2$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.71,27724.3%310 W · 967 L-58.2wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f19…bf1ebacked Yes48c375.42$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.425343.4%23 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes22c342.19$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.919741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dcf…950ebacked No10c313.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.34488.3%4 W · 44 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed No9c309.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.951246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd54…b332backed No52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1561450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No37c292$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.291,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes33c289.69$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.8734534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes29c273.54$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.396848.5%33 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No14c258.71$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8821815.6%34 W · 184 L-37.8wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-68.9%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes47c255$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.157832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x85ba…e33abacked No56c250$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes48c240$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.814429.9%43 W · 101 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes25c211.18$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.746529.2%19 W · 46 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No10c204$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41035.8%6 W · 97 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed No74c200$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.51560%9 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0b…b8b2backed No52c200$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1031030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No12c199$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.851,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb527…3b52backed Yes80c188$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.386240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes55c187.27$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2735334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d76…75b4backed No33c170$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbac…87c5backed Yes49c160.73$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.32757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+39.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfd4…fe7bbacked Yes59c160.35$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.36850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes48c160$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.277532%24 W · 51 L-11.1wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Yes49c150$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.54339.5%17 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed No53c150$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.51145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No66c149.89$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.436440.6%26 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x311d…5357backed No11c145.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-43.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec8…f83dbacked No54c137.15$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-59%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb896…ac39backed No74c133.72$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1430%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No35c130$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.799745.4%44 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes47c125$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.25771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ef5…c90bbacked No51c118.04$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1694…8badbacked No56c118.03$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick43cpaid-73%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd211…628bbacked No50c114.77$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.393141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes49c114.39$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.018339.8%33 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes48c110.77$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.074143.9%18 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes54c110$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.611133.3%37 W · 74 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes45c105$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.75933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3976…808cbacked No50c102$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes69c102$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9729436.1%106 W · 188 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed No12c100.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.112733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed3a…3047backed Yes51c100.59$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.61933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.676653%35 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652650%13 W · 13 L+6.8wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+233%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.67857.7%45 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605337.7%20 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x470c…ca16backed Yes48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x045c…5861backed No58c99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.912657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x582a…7bb2backed No17c95.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.015135.3%18 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07de…d18ebacked Yes55c95$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.752100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+112.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No56c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.47548%36 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b7…1af2backed Yes61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.97837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+224.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x610a…c83bbacked Yes47c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x925f…64e2backed Yes49c80$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e58…4943backed Yes50c75.04$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.531266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+82.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b5f…0ecdbacked Yes53c75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.251540%6 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+42.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03f9…c50bbacked No62c70.94$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa231…a91ebacked Yes44c69.32$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.822100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+215.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaccd…befdbacked Yes69c67.82$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+97.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f8b…56edbacked Yes40c66.78$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.781729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcad7…2a9fbacked Yes45c64.31$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f62…90a2backed Yes44c56.81$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.811136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa351…fb7cbacked No56c55$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.81030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2145…602bbacked Yes47c55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+110.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8533…7c76backed Yes48c51.66$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b87…3e8dbacked Yes50c50.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.491546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd879…2f44backed Yes49c50.77$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93b5…0f43backed Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x363b…006abacked Yes49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+42%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x596d…1aadbacked Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+91.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdf5…e344backed No62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5c6…1f92backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-65.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xae3d…d42dbacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.28per pick43cpaid-65.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa528…e221backed Yes64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x399d…e294backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea4b…eb8cbacked Yes49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x905d…2c17backed No55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+36.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b24…f8a1backed Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+78%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbd1…1da0backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-31.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.