Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6185427ca3cf12a18f0dff54f656e8185b3ea167cf7f073766ac489bf1df4dcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 30c | 1,800$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 66c | 1,246$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.94 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Yes | 62c | 1,162$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.88 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Yes | 80c | 811.81$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.23 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 29c | 546.28$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.18 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 36c | 338.36$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5254…891bbacked Yes | 55c | 271.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 255$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 186.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b58…a73fbacked No | 47c | 182.46$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 37c | 172.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 72c | 160$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…8eafbacked Yes | 60c | 157.85$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 36c | 130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 39c | 114.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa95a…6092backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…2027backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 12c | 98.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 24c | 91.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 16c | 85.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fd…f553backed No | 38c | 79.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…c90bbacked No | 44c | 76.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 40c | 58.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes | 56c | 57.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 45c | 52.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe12c…def5backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf356…7d7ebacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -59%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65b…516bbacked No | 44c | 38.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…e1f9backed No | 40c | 35.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1694…8badbacked Yes | 53c | 32.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb896…ac39backed No | 38c | 31.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c00…8c3ebacked No | 38c | 28.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…f9c0backed Yes | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…0b0fbacked Yes | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in June?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.