Chess · resolved market
Will Alireza Firouzja Win the Chennai Grand Masters Tournament
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6d1c650e053aee9c280d1620b39d423fd9328f02be71ae3bcd5b5d73b494d1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48d9…2a28backed Yes | 56c | 1,360$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.94 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 72c | 1,242$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.78 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 845.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 44c | 622.58$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.23 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked Yes | 55c | 464.9$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.09 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 47c | 439.18$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 33c | 387.98$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…8973backed Yes | 76c | 387.13$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…0789backed No | 52c | 381.8$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 42c | 375.9$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 41c | 345.43$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 45c | 289.15$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.03 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7e…28ddbacked No | 43c | 244$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 36c | 229.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 47c | 210$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 14c | 202.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 42c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed No | 12c | 162.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 45c | 151.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 39c | 135$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 42c | 130.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d7…6547backed Yes | 44c | 122.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked No | 42c | 121$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 51c | 113$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +140.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 105$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 48c | 102$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0640…5ea2backed No | 41c | 99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…59c6backed Yes | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 20c | 81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 25c | 78.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 21c | 70.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 34c | 70.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 41c | 60.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 70c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…1fa6backed No | 28c | 53.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 31c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17d…cc55backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…4ad4backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 41c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…6ae6backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…e4d5backed No | 67c | 32.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…f1f3backed Yes | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 51c | 30.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed No | 47c | 28.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…5630backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…dec9backed Yes | 61c | 23.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…1623backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alireza Firouzja Win the Chennai Grand Masters Tournamentthis page
- Will Arjun Erigaisi Win the Chennai Grand Masters TournamentNo won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov Win the Chennai Grand Masters TournamentNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.