Chess · resolved market
Will Arjun Erigaisi Win the Chennai Grand Masters Tournament
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe59e971b14484a16893526c98c4ffedc8c389343948abc468c92746602f43ceb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 23c | 1,436$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.95 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed Yes | 24c | 1,297$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8df…ec75backed Yes | 29c | 1,148$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d9…2a28backed Yes | 42c | 920.05$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 71c | 815.35$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.77 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 74c | 465.5$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…8973backed Yes | 41c | 238$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 229.66$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 75c | 218$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 15c | 210.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 25c | 200.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 70c | 193.9$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…0789backed Yes | 39c | 182.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 71c | 158$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 155$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 23c | 116.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0640…5ea2backed Yes | 34c | 98.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 75c | 91.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 25c | 82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 25c | 77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 29c | 70.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…59c6backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 63c | 55.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 50.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1a…e8a4backed Yes | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 71c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 29c | 38.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 59c | 34.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…e4d5backed No | 69c | 31.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7e…28ddbacked No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fee…2e1abacked No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 71c | 24.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 20.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd83f…03b1backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7114…6432backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0beb…4503backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arjun Erigaisi Win the Chennai Grand Masters Tournamentthis page
- Will Alireza Firouzja Win the Chennai Grand Masters TournamentYes won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov Win the Chennai Grand Masters TournamentNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.