Fifa International · resolved market
Will Lionel Messi score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa782cdcb564dd518a4c76e715cf6ec0f9738c1fb12177381f622e1bdebc562e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 14c | 16,129$2,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200.71 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe7…6143backed Yes | 3c | 8,824$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,501$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8b…645cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,412$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 244 | 40.2%98 W · 146 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 19c | 4,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,813$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.37 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,757$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 71c | 2,655$1,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.2 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa407…507fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,632$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7e…28ddbacked Yes | 5c | 2,208$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.88 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4acb…e264backed Yes | 14c | 2,143$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 202 | 1.5%3 W · 199 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3215…1050backed Yes | 4c | 1,726$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 71c | 1,373$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.34 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03d3…b12fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,088$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…2267backed Yes | 4c | 1,053$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 74c | 889.2$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.19 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326f…802dbacked Yes | 19c | 789.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Yes | 22c | 524.65$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.26 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 3c | 492.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78e…4718backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c05…cd91backed Yes | 5c | 395.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba75…de62backed Yes | 3c | 388.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 14c | 325.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 119 | 28.6%34 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 27c | 290.3$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 16c | 288.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 25c | 261.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…a433backed Yes | 28c | 242.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 240.12$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed No | 72c | 231.34$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 68c | 230.89$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +18.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 202.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ee…cc59backed Yes | 21c | 201.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1e…fbb1backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 33c | 198.81$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 1,114 | 49.4%550 W · 564 L | +57.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 10c | 192$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 186.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 72c | 149.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 470 | 49.4%232 W · 238 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 28c | 144.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 10c | 140.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…3be7backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed Yes | 31c | 130.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a0…2746backed Yes | 19c | 122.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 197 | 39.6%78 W · 119 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed No | 68c | 119.96$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc27…5bf9backed Yes | 22c | 115.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…8c62backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 24c | 103.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 263 | 44.1%116 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4423…47fdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 44.3%54 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa4…0dfebacked No | 67c | 96.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f29…8638backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…afc3backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 12c | 87.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 70.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 72c | 58.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a2…8c1cbacked Yes | 29c | 55.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22d…3f00backed Yes | 28c | 54.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…baadbacked Yes | 28c | 50.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…3c69backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked No | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507b…b776backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbd…8446backed No | 67c | 41.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6da…2a10backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked No | 47c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3f…5e72backed No | 40c | 31.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94fd…7fefbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fc…469dbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lionel Messi score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Lionel Messi score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Lionel Messi score 12+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Lionel Messi score 13+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Lionel Messi score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 7+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 8+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.