Fifa International · resolved market
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f55defc59d3b873f631e5c79c1ed8ae77432b1703a6adc2b6a56410c1485a5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce12…0e76backed No | 8c | 775$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 678.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 67c | 487.7$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.19 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 6c | 390.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 40c | 374.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.08 | 341 | 51%174 W · 167 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 9c | 346.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…e7ffbacked No | 6c | 345.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…930fbacked Yes | 60c | 334.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.69 | 180 | 37.2%67 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 60c | 274.45$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.23 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 12c | 263.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.05 | 218 | 36.2%79 W · 139 L | -19.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc37…fdf4backed No | 41c | 249.68$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.09 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc117…78b7backed Yes | 29c | 243.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a0…2746backed Yes | 58c | 158.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 197 | 39.6%78 W · 119 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab73…a3e1backed No | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…2f95backed No | 22c | 138$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…1ca4backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 96 | 12.5%12 W · 84 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b7…e14abacked No | 22c | 114.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…96e8backed Yes | 60c | 105.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9d…e7b4backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 39c | 65.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 42c | 63.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd12e…f3c1backed Yes | 65c | 61.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 41c | 54.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 39c | 29.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | -11.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 41c | 28.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ce…7e1dbacked Yes | 65c | 27.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ca…ba07backed Yes | 48c | 26.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc83e…ac22backed No | 52c | 25.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 24.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…4941backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Lionel Messi score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Lionel Messi score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Lionel Messi score 12+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Lionel Messi score 13+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Lionel Messi score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 7+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 8+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.