Fifa International · resolved market
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0747eb251499deb1ef38aa24762b5de79bb9167ceb89d13dc78cf7d020be0ae6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 42c | 3,145$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,827.48 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes | 28c | 1,209$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.37 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 50c | 1,025$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.5 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 61c | 1,020$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.6 | 125 | 34.4%43 W · 82 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed No | 4c | 821.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 68c | 600$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.26 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…930fbacked Yes | 39c | 509.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.76 | 180 | 37.2%67 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 59c | 449.76$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.36 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked Yes | 28c | 426.66$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.06 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed No | 59c | 373$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.47 | 481 | 40.1%193 W · 288 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked Yes | 63c | 361.93$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.22 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 36c | 299.26$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.34 | 144 | 36.1%52 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 48c | 293$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.48 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed Yes | 38c | 285$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.47 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdc…a595backed Yes | 33c | 205.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.38 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…c0febacked No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc83e…ac22backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 170$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 51c | 159.32$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.69 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7881…5c15backed Yes | 35c | 144.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.84 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 35c | 140.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.45 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…41afbacked Yes | 43c | 135.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 68c | 130$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…8305backed No | 62c | 130$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 320 | 44.1%141 W · 179 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 61c | 111.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 54c | 111$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 218 | 36.2%79 W · 139 L | -19.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed No | 68c | 108.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f32…7ac4backed Yes | 41c | 108.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 281 | 48.4%136 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 68c | 92.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…53ecbacked Yes | 36c | 82.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 76c | 67.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7923…6c0bbacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 34c | 59.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 42c | 54.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +18.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x23b4…48dabacked No | 62c | 52.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…025abacked Yes | 34c | 50.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 53c | 47.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d5…a1e3backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…3afabacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes | 33c | 37.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4420…ea24backed Yes | 36c | 36.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…e99bbacked No | 58c | 35.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 138 | 55.1%76 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…5fffbacked Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ca…ef3dbacked Yes | 39c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…8227backed Yes | 39c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e28…2db0backed Yes | 39c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb090…7085backed Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…441fbacked Yes | 42c | 23.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +248%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 166 | 46.4%77 W · 89 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…e563backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Lionel Messi score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Lionel Messi score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Lionel Messi score 12+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Lionel Messi score 13+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Lionel Messi score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 7+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 8+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.