Fifa International · resolved market
Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc576d1926aa3047ebc6e9e517b8b690be8893c4e096d91c26a41796edcff17e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86a0…2f95backed No | 8c | 223.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed No | 68c | 178.36$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.35 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 14c | 176.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.92 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 26c | 175$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.2 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 20c | 132$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafab…8991backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x072d…0eb7backed Yes | 19c | 80.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91dd…4313backed No | 21c | 72.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 31c | 66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0a…9ed3backed Yes | 18c | 65.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70f5…e182backed Yes | 19c | 62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.59per pick | 42cpaid | +185.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd497…c62fbacked Yes | 79c | 58.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdc…5a2ebacked Yes | 80c | 18.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Lionel Messi score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Lionel Messi score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Lionel Messi score 12+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Lionel Messi score 13+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Lionel Messi score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 7+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 8+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.