TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5e0a…9ed3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
97
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 58 out of 100; worst UFC at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT9248.9%45 W · 47 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 92 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$111
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+517.3%+$517.28
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.87
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+249.5%+$109.76
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$97
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+201.8%+$50.45
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+37%+$7.4
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$155
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+91.1%+$40.99
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$11.23
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+389%+$70.02
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+204.1%+$34.7
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$10.56
Showing 25 of 92 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$6.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$24.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 17, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 17, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Araujo vs. Silvabacked Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$13.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.