Fifa International · resolved market
Will Daisies be the first song performed by Justin Bieber at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6eadeb133ad861aff74e58a56c2f345f7d7a94434722fc71797c4875be785736
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48b7…6d53backed Yes | 28c | 1,163$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7e…28ddbacked No | 73c | 606$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.06 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 26c | 405.69$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.13 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 8c | 340$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 77c | 336.6$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254b…515cbacked Yes | 13c | 209.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 25c | 146.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…0121backed No | 71c | 145.06$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 27c | 106.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 176 | 29%51 W · 125 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,306 | 44.7%584 W · 722 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 24c | 98.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 91.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…20a4backed Yes | 27c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 78.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 489 | 61.3%300 W · 189 L | +71.0wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1f…6465backed No | 73c | 62.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…a954backed Yes | 34c | 38.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ee…a180backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 31c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…15e5backed Yes | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 163 | 33.7%55 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…1751backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3a…258ebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…179ebacked No | 64c | 19.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35dd…6df8backed Yes | 66c | 16.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Daisies be the first song performed by Justin Bieber at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?this page
- Will Baby be the first song performed by Justin Bieber at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?No won
- Will Beauty And A Beat be the first song performed by Justin Bieber at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?No won
- Will Despacito be the first song performed by Justin Bieber at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?No won
- Will Sorry be the first song performed by Justin Bieber at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?No won
- Will Yukon be the first song performed by Justin Bieber at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.