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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Vitalityof Team Vitality, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$565,181
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$633,690

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $565,181 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 379 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Natus Vincere40c51,541$20,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,801.8442146.1%194 W · 227 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8660…93edbacked Team Vitality56c38,825$21,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,226.3118548.6%90 W · 95 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d20…a165backed Natus Vincere65c37,714$24,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,582.86757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Natus Vincere40c34,465$13,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,852.0824145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Vitality60c33,679$20,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,582.455444.4%24 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Team Vitality79c24,394$19,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,128.011154.5%6 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick74cpaid-24%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked Team Vitality39c18,217$7,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,144.373145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Natus Vincere61c14,807$9,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,069.4813649.3%67 W · 69 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Team Vitality54c13,961$7,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,374.1517246.5%80 W · 92 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed Natus Vincere53c10,314$5,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,463.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3b…0cadbacked Team Vitality57c8,646$4,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,675.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Team Vitality43c8,536$3,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,848.366038.3%23 W · 37 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Team Vitality56c7,678$4,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,390.162369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Natus Vincere37c7,158$2,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,645.554734%16 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Natus Vincere60c6,272$3,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,732.64751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bcb…398abacked Team Vitality62c6,263$3,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,387.77250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdec6…1d8ebacked Natus Vincere57c6,000$3,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,439.993855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Natus Vincere47c5,961$2,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,780.3594361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38ce…1581backed Natus Vincere62c5,500$3,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,409.981225%3 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-53.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Natus Vincere37c5,394$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.62133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Natus Vincere38c5,275$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.8154851.1%280 W · 268 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Natus Vincere46c5,199$2,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,382.1726650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Team Vitality50c5,123$2,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,556.5352444.7%234 W · 290 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed Team Vitality42c4,650$1,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,714.4222344.4%99 W · 124 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Team Vitality55c3,878$2,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,737.1755442.2%234 W · 320 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Natus Vincere41c3,866$1,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,585.232254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Natus Vincere38c3,681$1,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,403.0232863.1%207 W · 121 L+33.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Natus Vincere36c3,658$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.6915337.9%58 W · 95 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Team Vitality62c3,502$2,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.6320761.4%127 W · 80 L+20.0wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+22.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdf80…3259backed Team Vitality73c3,478$2,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Natus Vincere57c3,399$1,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,952.2452449.8%261 W · 263 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03d8…e73cbacked Natus Vincere36c3,254$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.323050%15 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d5c…d8f2backed Team Vitality55c3,105$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,395.36616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-69.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Vitality33c2,921$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,956.841,43451.1%733 W · 701 L+48.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa07…d6fabacked Team Vitality60c2,872$1,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.11540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+155.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Team Vitality56c2,850$1,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,24533245.5%151 W · 181 L+52.7wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+38.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x9709…52abbacked Team Vitality49c2,734$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,397.51883.3%15 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+68.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Vitality43c2,645$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.9568949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21de…506ebacked Natus Vincere35c2,545$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-56.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Natus Vincere40c2,419$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.1911747%55 W · 62 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Natus Vincere13c2,281$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.0120138.3%77 W · 124 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1991…348ebacked Natus Vincere36c2,133$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.17825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-67.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf647…0ccbbacked Team Vitality48c2,053$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.524955.1%27 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+33.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed Team Vitality61c1,815$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.84475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+40.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Natus Vincere46c1,791$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.9112143%52 W · 69 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Natus Vincere33c1,791$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.666747.8%32 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Natus Vincere42c1,746$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.41030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere48c1,638$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.4124550.2%123 W · 122 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Team Vitality70c1,455$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.7942747.1%201 W · 226 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Natus Vincere51c1,453$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74026236.3%95 W · 167 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Natus Vincere39c1,412$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.684452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere41c1,393$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.5966059.5%393 W · 267 L+51.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Natus Vincere37c1,349$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.4825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0af2…a2bbbacked Natus Vincere49c1,340$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.592835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-6.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d35…b406backed Team Vitality39c1,280$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.85841.4%24 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Natus Vincere40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005251.9%27 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere35c1,233$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.371,75246.2%810 W · 942 L-2.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed Team Vitality60c1,180$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.8210842.6%46 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed Team Vitality52c1,123$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.592343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed Natus Vincere52c1,115$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.2526051.9%135 W · 125 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Natus Vincere28c1,086$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.761,29432.4%419 W · 875 L-65.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d9a…dbe1backed Natus Vincere9c1,079$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-71%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x953b…f747backed Team Vitality65c1,077$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.923450%17 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Team Vitality40c1,074$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.3859150.8%300 W · 291 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Natus Vincere23c1,017$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.8810455.8%58 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked Natus Vincere38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3806445.3%29 W · 35 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Natus Vincere33c999.26$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.0157757.7%333 W · 244 L+35.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Natus Vincere35c993.21$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.626759.7%40 W · 27 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+19.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae3f…defebacked Team Vitality61c957.72$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.513174.2%23 W · 8 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xba5e…f9c4backed Natus Vincere40c956.37$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.033053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked Natus Vincere36c941.67$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34010546.7%49 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked Natus Vincere40c934.11$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.651369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+47.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Team Vitality53c931.84$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.8121136.5%77 W · 134 L-15.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Vitality62c924.9$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.2594648.1%455 W · 491 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a5…534cbacked Team Vitality49c914.62$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.6213044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba58…6d74backed Team Vitality65c909.78$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.4225555.7%142 W · 113 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c6…933abacked Team Vitality61c898.36$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.3612856.3%72 W · 56 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6297…1e59backed Natus Vincere36c890$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.42944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Natus Vincere35c887.98$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.7955852.2%291 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac89…3783backed Team Vitality61c835.97$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.031947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Natus Vincere37c809.09$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.632231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Natus Vincere40c763.01$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.879662.3%496 W · 300 L+54.0wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x68e9…845cbacked Natus Vincere34c756.87$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.951631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere44c750.27$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.5768758.4%401 W · 286 L+56.8wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe60e…3f04backed Team Vitality73c750$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-44.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x253e…84e4backed Natus Vincere50c750$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3755641.1%23 W · 33 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Natus Vincere36c738.73$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.9463955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffe3…eaafbacked Team Vitality61c732.82$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.822650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30c1…9f91backed Team Vitality32c732.1$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.83977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+85.7%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Natus Vincere38c722.81$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.351,62945%733 W · 896 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Natus Vincere37c719.82$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.7315337.9%58 W · 95 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Team Vitality63c649.32$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.2516547.9%79 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Team Vitality60c635$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25430652.3%160 W · 146 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked Team Vitality39c629.31$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.882744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Team Vitality53c603.41$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.9255637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Team Vitality59c596.73$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.6129343.7%128 W · 165 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Natus Vincere26c582.03$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020546.3%95 W · 110 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Natus Vincere39c579.36$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.726040%24 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Natus Vincere40c578.02$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.941,32943.6%580 W · 749 L-47.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82f2…27d4backed Team Vitality55c568.29$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.293650%18 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.