Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71f9ce496476fe8dd1b8baaba18bdc2d56919696e90aa3af7dd51b064216471f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Team Vitality, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 3,000$1,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.81 | 521 | 55.5%289 W · 232 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Team Vitality | 34c | 1,539$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.26 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Vitality | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…48cabacked Natus Vincere | 63c | 384.86$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.4 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -9.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Team Vitality | 35c | 343.83$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.34 | 176 | 40.3%71 W · 105 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Team Vitality | 36c | 293.45$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 173 | 32.4%56 W · 117 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…4eecbacked Team Vitality | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 176 | 42.6%75 W · 101 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…b30dbacked Team Vitality | 35c | 254.7$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 248.17$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 253 | 47%119 W · 134 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Team Vitality | 36c | 191.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 165.1$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 531 | 59.1%314 W · 217 L | +41.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 103$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 90.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 639 | 55.6%355 W · 284 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Team Vitality | 35c | 55.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 543 | 42.4%230 W · 313 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Team Vitality | 33c | 52.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -15.5wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed8…2c70backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 46.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 132 | 61.4%81 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e8…e69cbacked Team Vitality | 34c | 36.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Valorant: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group AlphaTeam Vitality won
- Valorant: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Valorant: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 WinnerTeam Vitality won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.