TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Team Vitality, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$174,715
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$191,626

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,715 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Vitality57c25,000$14,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,199.944643.5%20 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Team Vitality41c22,262$9,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,127.8124145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Natus Vincere43c10,000$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7009051.1%46 W · 44 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Natus Vincere61c9,603$5,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,747.3326650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Natus Vincere80c9,431$7,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,928.061154.5%6 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick74cpaid-24%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Natus Vincere43c8,740$3,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,985.3354851.1%280 W · 268 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Vitality26c7,524$1,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,938.240945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Team Vitality43c7,201$3,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,113.342369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere59c4,875$2,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,020.8965559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere60c4,308$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,708.7968458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Natus Vincere45c3,846$1,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,121.4511747%55 W · 62 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere62c3,468$2,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,303.7753159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x54a1…f88bbacked Team Vitality41c3,148$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.338936%32 W · 57 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Team Vitality38c3,005$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.737940.5%32 W · 47 L-15.6wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-39.3%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Natus Vincere68c2,412$1,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.7556551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Natus Vincere62c2,404$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.2494361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Vitality16c1,984$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.3468949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Vitality12c1,885$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.651,28132.1%411 W · 870 L-67.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Natus Vincere69c1,884$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.192254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7441…4891backed Natus Vincere44c1,818$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.181957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Team Vitality36c1,725$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.1912143%52 W · 69 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Vitality19c1,484$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.221,61245.1%727 W · 885 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Vitality17c1,484$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.121,31243.8%575 W · 737 L-44.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae3f…defebacked Natus Vincere43c1,395$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.353174.2%23 W · 8 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed Natus Vincere44c1,300$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72826051.9%135 W · 125 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38ce…1581backed Team Vitality17c1,270$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.91225%3 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-53.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe60e…3f04backed Team Vitality23c1,250$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.87728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-44.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd794…248bbacked Natus Vincere62c1,133$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.081770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d35…b406backed Team Vitality44c1,130$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.525244.2%23 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Natus Vincere76c1,064$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.426048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Team Vitality22c916.95$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017853.9%96 W · 82 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Natus Vincere58c900$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3791030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere64c893.74$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.793248.1%448 W · 484 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb93…e1d3backed Natus Vincere65c790$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.52142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc585…8244backed Team Vitality41c749.41$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.26862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Team Vitality30c745.64$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.795939%23 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Team Vitality33c715$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.0820138.3%77 W · 124 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Natus Vincere44c684.63$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.3925761.1%157 W · 100 L+22.9wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb6c6…933abacked Natus Vincere61c657.38$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.3812856.3%72 W · 56 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked Natus Vincere45c633.98$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.691369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+47.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x260f…6980backed Team Vitality26c615.31$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.015532.7%18 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a3…5857backed Natus Vincere65c590$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.55451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25d5…11fcbacked Natus Vincere70c572.8$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.86050%30 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Vitality30c558.23$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7556557.7%326 W · 239 L+35.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked Team Vitality59c539.99$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.592744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Team Vitality54c532$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.931153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Team Vitality56c511.99$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.717338.4%28 W · 45 L-10.0wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-25.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Vitality5c510$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.589344.3%396 W · 497 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed Natus Vincere44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28018149.7%90 W · 91 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6277backed Natus Vincere56c499.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2204557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed Team Vitality34c447.44$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503342.4%14 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a5…534cbacked Team Vitality34c439.47$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15013044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team Vitality55c437.96$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.8851849.6%257 W · 261 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Team Vitality24c437.58$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3722539.1%88 W · 137 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Team Vitality17c430.47$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6260423%139 W · 465 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Team Vitality17c419.82$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9446746.7%218 W · 249 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Team Vitality40c411.41$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16530652.3%160 W · 146 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Team Vitality8c384$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.231,36538.9%531 W · 834 L-60.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e8e…f9b2backed Natus Vincere43c348.84$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.844949%24 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffe3…eaafbacked Team Vitality37c347.3$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Vitality20c333$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7181834.8%285 W · 533 L-61.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Natus Vincere66c328$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.2478562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3b9…ad06backed Natus Vincere44c325$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1827254.2%39 W · 33 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Team Vitality49c320$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.830544.3%135 W · 170 L-1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Team Vitality41c306.98$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.1696945%436 W · 533 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Vitality58c299.99$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17453742.1%226 W · 311 L-15.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe896…a4c7backed Natus Vincere67c299.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.335650%28 W · 28 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-15.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1311…b275backed Team Vitality38c297.37$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1131921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Vitality9c275.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.131,60737.5%603 W · 1,004 L-75.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Team Vitality47c266.01$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.6424551%125 W · 120 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eb7…a3cdbacked Natus Vincere44c260.71$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.713863.2%24 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Natus Vincere66c257.65$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871,49546.6%696 W · 799 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe6…4fadbacked Natus Vincere44c255.83$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.455062%31 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba5e…f9c4backed Natus Vincere41c254.9$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.393053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1967…30b5backed Team Vitality55c250$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.513446.3%62 W · 72 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5e…0381backed Natus Vincere63c229.23$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.235855.2%32 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe844…3d42backed Natus Vincere66c229.11$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.94660.9%28 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0af2…a2bbbacked Team Vitality29c225.4$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.372835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-6.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3edb…11b8backed Team Vitality37c211.05$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.685246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Natus Vincere59c200.98$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.436138.5%139 W · 222 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere68c190.06$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.651,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed Natus Vincere63c184.99$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7316963.3%107 W · 62 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Team Vitality16c179.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4578344.1%345 W · 438 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Natus Vincere66c178.35$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3157550.6%291 W · 284 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Natus Vincere44c177.34$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.3122452.7%118 W · 106 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Natus Vincere59c164.83$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5893649.3%461 W · 475 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Natus Vincere41c163.31$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.3521457%122 W · 92 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6efa…a0a7backed Team Vitality60c161.23$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.482951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50ab…70a2backed Natus Vincere42c156.21$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.869540%38 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed Team Vitality60c150$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9036446.2%168 W · 196 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ae5…72d2backed Team Vitality29c149.2$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.274351.2%22 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Natus Vincere38c142.39$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6427146.9%127 W · 144 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Team Vitality37c142.23$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.491333.2%303 W · 610 L-89.8wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdbac…6b32backed Natus Vincere55c137.55$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.62966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Natus Vincere63c126.1$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.119656.6%111 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed Team Vitality38c126$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.888345.8%38 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x59cb…57d1backed Team Vitality40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504850%24 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Natus Vincere66c124$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6751344.6%229 W · 284 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…4eecbacked Team Vitality57c122.23$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6717642.6%75 W · 101 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x177d…158abacked Natus Vincere70c122.15$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.012441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.