TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Gentle Mates vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FUT Esportsof Gentle Mates, FUT Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$94,515
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$108,667

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,515 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed FUT Esports70c6,300$4,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,871.7440945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Gentle Mates37c5,756$2,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,156.3832445.4%147 W · 177 L+51.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+39.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed Gentle Mates42c4,950$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,069.5922344.4%99 W · 124 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Gentle Mates57c4,186$2,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,386.1110455.8%58 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Gentle Mates58c3,970$2,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,297.8319960.3%120 W · 79 L+17.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed FUT Esports43c3,508$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.553243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed FUT Esports42c3,000$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,742.2252455.2%289 W · 235 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Gentle Mates47c1,650$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.81973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+36.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x953b…f747backed FUT Esports62c1,621$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.553450%17 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed FUT Esports56c1,543$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.5732462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed FUT Esports64c1,500$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.1724250.4%122 W · 120 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Gentle Mates23c1,329$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9181834.8%285 W · 533 L-61.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed FUT Esports44c1,295$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.5763955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FUT Esports72c1,186$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.3153159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Gentle Mates31c1,108$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.5146526.7%124 W · 341 L-25.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked FUT Esports64c1,075$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.6525536.9%94 W · 161 L-0.9wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Gentle Mates35c1,025$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.8257550.6%291 W · 284 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed FUT Esports70c1,020$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.0115347.1%72 W · 81 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Gentle Mates44c1,001$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.3335142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FUT Esports68c996.83$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.494361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked FUT Esports56c964.62$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.8378562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Gentle Mates35c964.4$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.2156557.7%326 W · 239 L+35.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked FUT Esports41c887.97$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.955152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed FUT Esports62c882.27$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.261346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Gentle Mates37c852.44$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.8616547.9%79 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Gentle Mates36c831.84$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.865743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Gentle Mates24c745.51$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.6144441.9%186 W · 258 L-22.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed FUT Esports42c720.09$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.0935157.3%201 W · 150 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed FUT Esports42c690.42$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.4815137.7%57 W · 94 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed FUT Esports48c672$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.4619656.6%111 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x026b…8804backed FUT Esports78c636.63$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.0115358.8%90 W · 63 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Gentle Mates29c593.2$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.0721136.5%77 W · 134 L-15.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Gentle Mates57c579.5$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.6221457%122 W · 92 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked FUT Esports62c574.09$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.8560454%326 W · 278 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked FUT Esports75c573.15$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.8821055.2%116 W · 94 L+10.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Gentle Mates11c563$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2766638%253 W · 413 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Gentle Mates31c482$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.4255637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0284…97f6backed Gentle Mates57c481.82$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.511681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked FUT Esports42c471.76$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.9724551%125 W · 120 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Gentle Mates27c405.28$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3426932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Gentle Mates55c382.04$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.3454542.2%230 W · 315 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Gentle Mates45c358.29$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7332152.6%169 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Gentle Mates40c350.98$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.311,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Gentle Mates34c348.94$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0133838.5%130 W · 208 L-21.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6297…1e59backed Gentle Mates59c325$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.752944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed FUT Esports44c322.4$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.5418940.7%77 W · 112 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Gentle Mates35c317$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6251344.6%229 W · 284 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FUT Esports76c309$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5868458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Gentle Mates22c307.5$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4556551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Gentle Mates30c284.3$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.530835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe3e0…708fbacked Gentle Mates56c276.79$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1553946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff2…149bbacked Gentle Mates19c264.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Gentle Mates23c259.64$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.911,36538.9%531 W · 834 L-60.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked FUT Esports42c256.66$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.96759.7%40 W · 27 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+19.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7886…ec60backed Gentle Mates38c247.86$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.197534.7%26 W · 49 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed FUT Esports42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.119847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed FUT Esports52c230$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.869845.9%45 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0c…da03backed Gentle Mates19c226.32$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4311738.5%45 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x20ec…ee4abacked Gentle Mates16c225.48$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Gentle Mates59c220.34$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13019945.2%90 W · 109 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f44…e1f9backed FUT Esports60c216.66$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.66450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Gentle Mates15c208.44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.291,60737.5%603 W · 1,004 L-75.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked FUT Esports60c207.62$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.058736.8%32 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa371…eaa5backed Gentle Mates59c206.78$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1227646.1%35 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb378…e4c0backed Gentle Mates5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc732…adefbacked Gentle Mates21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421586.7%13 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.27per pick59cpaid+38.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbc64…fc2bbacked FUT Esports42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11618653.8%100 W · 86 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba58…6d74backed Gentle Mates59c199.59$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7625555.7%142 W · 113 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed FUT Esports42c197$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.264337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed FUT Esports42c195.28$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.261764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+37.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x833c…42b4backed Gentle Mates13c192.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255927.1%16 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9506…6182backed Gentle Mates60c183.91$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1109054.4%49 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x009c…049bbacked Gentle Mates55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007244.4%32 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x25a4…69f6backed Gentle Mates59c180$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.26251.6%32 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9734…bfd8backed Gentle Mates58c171.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019257.8%111 W · 81 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cef…dbcbbacked Gentle Mates59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020546.8%96 W · 109 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Gentle Mates51c164.52$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.061,25349.5%620 W · 633 L-3.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3537…3b51backed Gentle Mates50c164.1$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828444%37 W · 47 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbcc…1377backed FUT Esports47c164.07$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.21154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed FUT Esports42c163.01$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4628352.3%148 W · 135 L-1.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed FUT Esports51c155.54$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5133546.6%156 W · 179 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked FUT Esports41c155$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.3631153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe844…3d42backed FUT Esports63c150.79$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.794660.9%28 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xade6…c465backed FUT Esports62c150$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.365347.3%309 W · 344 L-18.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Gentle Mates30c147.08$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7116144.7%72 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7070…821cbacked Gentle Mates27c146.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9911738.5%45 W · 72 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ea9…9248backed FUT Esports61c144.26$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2611159.5%66 W · 45 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed Gentle Mates46c143.85$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1725347%119 W · 134 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked FUT Esports57c143$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9120138.3%77 W · 124 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Gentle Mates58c139.98$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1916451.8%85 W · 79 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf908…0aafbacked Gentle Mates59c135.59$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8013243.2%57 W · 75 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51b6…1903backed Gentle Mates46c129.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6026354.4%143 W · 120 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Gentle Mates38c125.38$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4775142.7%321 W · 430 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0181…9b5fbacked FUT Esports50c125$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7527850%139 W · 139 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4aff…9200backed Gentle Mates25c120.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.29139.6%36 W · 55 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked Gentle Mates22c114.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.616420.1%33 W · 131 L-20.1wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-49.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Gentle Mates37c112.65$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.57143.7%31 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a96…b71dbacked Gentle Mates38c111.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.322536%9 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked FUT Esports69c107.53$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1513662.5%85 W · 51 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd11…67b1backed FUT Esports70c107.31$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.314546.7%21 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.