AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x827b5637b79c039c659893b88ef77fdb8fd357ab2c5d1719be27aa3cba5382c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 43c | 1,637$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.04 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 1,085$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 416 | 7.5%31 W · 385 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 624.39$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.95 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 610.81$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.83 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 29c | 595.64$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.91 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 16c | 595.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ca…3b87backed Yes | 74c | 493.27$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.66 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 6c | 478.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 23c | 458.43$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 28c | 378.06$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.51 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 31c | 370.3$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe8…30cbbacked Yes | 70c | 329.99$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 58c | 295.14$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.59 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 56c | 289.01$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.35 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 38c | 282.65$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fc…5111backed Yes | 21c | 249.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +138.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6d…0fcbbacked No | 46c | 229.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 21c | 228.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.78 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 8c | 211.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 23c | 200.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.85 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 13c | 198.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.1 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 191.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.22 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 135$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.98 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 12c | 127.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.98 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 113.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…38d5backed Yes | 16c | 100.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 95.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 19c | 93.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.24 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 19c | 79.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 20c | 79.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -8.2wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 15c | 68.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 50.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…a70ebacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7b…7836backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +369.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 41c | 46.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 30c | 40.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…1377backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 66c | 22.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 21.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…864dbacked Yes | 75c | 16.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?this page
- Will Google have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.