AI · resolved market
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a30b65b498c26c88a9dfc6b11196c4f465321a9369aa0bed2f74f2e73208f4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5004…9999backed No | 10c | 1,537$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed No | 9c | 1,446$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.27 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ca…3b87backed No | 74c | 949.4$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.07 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 43c | 783.03$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.43 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 645.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 624.35$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.56 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 610.88$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.79 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 21c | 598.39$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.87 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…38d5backed No | 17c | 533.28$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.57 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 19c | 502$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.03 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 11c | 468.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.79 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 461.43$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.47 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 14c | 382$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.77 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked No | 59c | 381.49$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.67 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 33c | 373.72$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.8 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 31c | 373.45$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.49 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 14c | 342.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.14 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 14c | 320.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.86 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked Yes | 72c | 282.47$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 268.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.24 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 39c | 244$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.92 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 24c | 215$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.63 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 17c | 214$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.62 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed No | 16c | 208.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.18 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 18c | 179.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.34 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 11c | 170.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 21c | 169.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…2d35backed Yes | 75c | 169.12$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 76cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes | 79c | 151.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 142$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 15c | 127.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 15c | 106$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 15c | 101.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…0fe6backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4eb…d3f0backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…f76ebacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdb…ba6cbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +500.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f33…54fcbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +500.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 13c | 92.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 24c | 85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 26c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 24c | 72.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 75c | 57.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 27c | 54.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 43c | 47.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 46.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed No | 65c | 44.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e36…ddfabacked Yes | 67c | 44.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0e…74f3backed Yes | 69c | 43.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 40.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…af9cbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c4…3de2backed Yes | 75c | 39.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa1…1860backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?this page
- Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?Yes won
- Will Google have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.