Middle East · resolved market
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27a7a60a3605b0cc0f41f0f243e6be5f2a6144b0adf59fad803fbc1ca6eeb928
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 61c | 2,389$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451.28 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 20c | 1,944$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.24 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 34c | 1,167$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.78 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 66c | 1,156$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.96 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,044$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 76c | 831.5$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.5 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 22c | 709.45$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.95 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 44c | 671.58$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.34 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 72c | 665.68$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.76 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eaa…80dbbacked Yes | 29c | 529.93$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 8c | 506.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…2443backed No | 79c | 500$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 34c | 497.61$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.95 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 481.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 14c | 437.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 22c | 404.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 4c | 391.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 376.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 70c | 314.98$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 302.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 15c | 294.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed No | 77c | 286.19$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 269.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 39c | 250$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.43 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 239.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Yes | 7c | 236.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 21c | 224.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 26c | 216.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…2fa6backed Yes | 19c | 207.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…c558backed Yes | 16c | 205.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ca…60aebacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Yes | 34c | 199$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 196.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Yes | 31c | 150.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 74c | 143.59$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 131 | 38.2%50 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…d3fdbacked Yes | 31c | 139.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 8c | 132.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed Yes | 39c | 124.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ead…14f8backed No | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 22c | 119.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…42c1backed Yes | 32c | 112$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…83f0backed No | 71c | 111.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 103.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb731…5797backed Yes | 25c | 100.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked No | 69c | 100.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 71c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 63c | 94.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -10.3wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 76c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x264a…c8b0backed Yes | 18c | 84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 72.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…a04bbacked Yes | 45c | 66.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…5d15backed No | 63c | 61.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 45c | 60.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 22c | 58.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…232fbacked Yes | 33c | 57.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 72c | 52.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed No | 75c | 51.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…649fbacked Yes | 35c | 49.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 40c | 48.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc97f…b64ebacked No | 58c | 36.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 77c | 35.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 196 | 41.8%82 W · 114 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…74cfbacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 74c | 29.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 66c | 20.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 63c | 17.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.