TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Barcelona vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hapoel Tel Avivof Barcelona, Hapoel Tel Aviv
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,565

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,565 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe524…d34fbacked Barcelona57c8,940$5,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,095.632263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+49.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Hapoel Tel Aviv43c6,720$2,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,830.44953.1%26 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0c…04b6backed Hapoel Tel Aviv44c4,683$2,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,616.11771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Barcelona18c4,518$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.413235.6%47 W · 85 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Barcelona43c2,394$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.6154251.5%279 W · 263 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8507…37fabacked Hapoel Tel Aviv48c2,166$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ff…d7afbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv45c2,097$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,153.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+181%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7c2…73bfbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv73c1,972$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.851844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Barcelona55c1,918$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.9112040.8%49 W · 71 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Barcelona48c1,352$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.2314447.9%69 W · 75 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42ef…1576backed Barcelona58c1,008$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-48.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Barcelona58c897$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.2627557.5%158 W · 117 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3cb…ef82backed Hapoel Tel Aviv41c646.9$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.151526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Barcelona56c598.56$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.612042.5%51 W · 69 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…e0eebacked Hapoel Tel Aviv43c499.97$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Hapoel Tel Aviv48c492.52$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.966237.1%23 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Barcelona58c422.21$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.2211455.3%63 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Barcelona29c410.14$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7426544.5%118 W · 147 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7896…c2ffbacked Barcelona43c389.24$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Hapoel Tel Aviv52c386$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.028344.6%37 W · 46 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Barcelona41c366.58$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4637052.7%195 W · 175 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Hapoel Tel Aviv53c362.16$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.9128943.6%126 W · 163 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Barcelona65c356.99$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23110663.2%67 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Barcelona59c337.9$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.551631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-50.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x295a…bdedbacked Barcelona11c328.91$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.18650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv54c326.43$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.422347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Hapoel Tel Aviv40c323.5$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.15040%20 W · 30 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e33…73e7backed Hapoel Tel Aviv43c286.05$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.051735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Barcelona39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006929%20 W · 49 L-9.3wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-32.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Hapoel Tel Aviv43c255.81$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.812751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Barcelona45c233.56$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.316144.3%27 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ace…95a9backed Hapoel Tel Aviv43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e07…c5cdbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv45c230.24$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Barcelona56c214.29$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201540%6 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x471c…3b43backed Hapoel Tel Aviv58c208.87$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.871361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Barcelona59c194.2$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.587159.2%42 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d24…2e44backed Hapoel Tel Aviv55c190$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Barcelona56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-33.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Hapoel Tel Aviv42c177.76$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.11040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Hapoel Tel Aviv45c176.48$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.481225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcf8…0f4dbacked Barcelona57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick67cpaid-63.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda86…6ff9backed Barcelona57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Barcelona49c170.44$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8635234.7%122 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Barcelona57c167.63$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4321444.4%95 W · 119 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6887…5a0cbacked Barcelona58c155.76$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.34633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61ec…838fbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv62c150$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Barcelona7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.58611.6%10 W · 76 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Barcelona60c142.16$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9231651.6%163 W · 153 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab15…7eacbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv42c139.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.19666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+100.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x403d…2709backed Hapoel Tel Aviv44c128.62$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.623735.1%13 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Barcelona59c121$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.396962.3%43 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a3d…4d49backed Hapoel Tel Aviv44c119.57$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.532740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Barcelona42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010736.4%39 W · 68 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Barcelona56c118.45$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7313147.3%62 W · 69 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3398…e348backed Hapoel Tel Aviv43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.281145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.288247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Hapoel Tel Aviv49c115.3$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2526935.3%95 W · 174 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa24d…38b2backed Barcelona56c106.84$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-42.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Barcelona40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Barcelona48c91$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.539746.4%45 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7bb…2753backed Barcelona57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501560%9 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53c5…cb95backed Barcelona29c86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.65728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe42d…62febacked Hapoel Tel Aviv43c83.72$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.72862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Barcelona18c83.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-70.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe23…e72bbacked Barcelona58c80$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8088…24dabacked Barcelona58c77.59$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Hapoel Tel Aviv41c73$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.077733.8%26 W · 51 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Barcelona33c71.79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9125517.6%45 W · 210 L-29.4wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-38.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xc332…118fbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv43c69.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6468…b693backed Hapoel Tel Aviv75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.67425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca4a…338abacked Hapoel Tel Aviv44c63.95$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.92748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Barcelona58c61.18$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.491050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3190…93bbbacked Barcelona57c58.53$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.36475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Hapoel Tel Aviv42c58.09$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.751442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a5…c4c3backed Barcelona53c56.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7a…899bbacked Barcelona53c55.05$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1620936.4%76 W · 133 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Barcelona55c53.49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.421838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-39.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x296f…dd54backed Barcelona58c51.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.796055%33 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Hapoel Tel Aviv45c51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.223135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Hapoel Tel Aviv59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85a4…7412backed Hapoel Tel Aviv44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4480…8c0ebacked Hapoel Tel Aviv42c47.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.62650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a81…b7e1backed Hapoel Tel Aviv43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv43c46.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.514355.8%24 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Barcelona56c44.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.751315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.6wins-0.36per pick51cpaid-77.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Barcelona58c41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.784452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad34…9f3abacked Barcelona57c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.83243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf05f…91d5backed Barcelona42c35.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ead…14f8backed Hapoel Tel Aviv43c35.53$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd243…2dcfbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv43c34.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.883043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Hapoel Tel Aviv75c34.59$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5712454%67 W · 57 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Barcelona45c31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.855646.4%26 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Barcelona57c31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.592040%8 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Hapoel Tel Aviv43c30.9$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.615453.7%29 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec7…1e38backed Hapoel Tel Aviv44c28.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.174136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b0…0f7dbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv52c28.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.77742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34dd…dbf8backed Barcelona59c25.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.38per pick52cpaid-78.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a49…737abacked Hapoel Tel Aviv63c23.87$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.872147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x287c…81b2backed Hapoel Tel Aviv51c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.88850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…52e8backed Hapoel Tel Aviv70c16.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.