Commodities · resolved market
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6add9bf74e6cb7e645b969ade966c20e94042503612b89c61212cd60597774e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad1b…aa5abacked Yes | 30c | 17,886$5,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,279.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b6…676fbacked Yes | 19c | 6,978$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.99 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,909$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.34 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 20c | 6,067$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.92 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed No | 69c | 4,348$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.79 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 4c | 3,119$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 11c | 3,000$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,564$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3f67backed No | 77c | 2,491$1,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 22c | 2,357$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.62 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 10c | 2,306$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.05 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 68c | 2,090$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.18 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 15c | 2,065$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.61 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 66c | 2,058$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.68 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 31c | 1,811$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.46 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 1,671$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.55 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,554$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…d917backed No | 78c | 1,516$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.27 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 12c | 1,485$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.5 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 71c | 1,014$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.73 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 14c | 988.14$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.87 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…2e0dbacked No | 70c | 949.85$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e0…4466backed Yes | 19c | 932.16$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 3c | 916.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 29c | 797.61$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 14c | 775.96$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 79c | 747.68$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.74 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 718.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 68c | 713.85$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.79 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 68c | 698.18$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 13c | 691.75$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 689.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…e568backed No | 70c | 688.33$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 63c | 669.88$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.95 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…31f2backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 66c | 605.98$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 11c | 604.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed No | 67c | 602.74$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.83 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 573.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb78…4ca8backed Yes | 22c | 561.66$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked No | 69c | 550$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 79c | 538.79$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 61c | 524.4$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.4 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked Yes | 21c | 498$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed No | 79c | 498$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 17c | 494.61$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf692…dd55backed Yes | 21c | 468.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 12c | 400.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…3255backed No | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.3 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 70c | 387.36$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.36 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed Yes | 23c | 385.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 377.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc080…f9a0backed Yes | 27c | 365.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d16…821abacked Yes | 4c | 357.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 13c | 350$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 12c | 340.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f72…5892backed No | 61c | 339.31$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 10c | 335.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed No | 60c | 328.46$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.16 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 4c | 323.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc13b…f908backed Yes | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 11c | 292.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fe…6e39backed No | 62c | 281.75$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2772…5c9cbacked No | 71c | 281.59$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 12c | 277.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…c464backed No | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 7c | 250.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 73c | 244$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 11c | 239.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed Yes | 19c | 233.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 7c | 232.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 5c | 232.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee3…b16bbacked Yes | 19c | 228.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 74c | 223.67$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 10c | 217.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Yes | 13c | 215$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 65c | 210.03$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 39c | 208.84$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.05 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 40c | 192.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 189.86$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 16c | 186$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…fa5bbacked No | 68c | 167.69$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed Yes | 31c | 159.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21a4…0b9ebacked No | 80c | 150.24$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 10c | 146.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 63c | 145$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…7f90backed Yes | 35c | 141.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 22c | 136.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked No | 64c | 128$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…37fcbacked Yes | 27c | 125.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x493c…953ebacked No | 79c | 125$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…e2c6backed Yes | 32c | 118.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…9c89backed Yes | 13c | 113$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15?this page
- U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.