Middle East · resolved market
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3c7f543267be8d963b4cbeb9d85df75d0cb41e72f3d30f6445067bb83a80cae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64df…ab80backed Yes | 79c | 4,290$3,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 4c | 1,706$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.72 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed No | 19c | 1,219$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.68 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 29c | 1,151$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.41 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbf…d0efbacked No | 10c | 1,106$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 1c | 1,048$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 8c | 1,020$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 9c | 958.7$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.29 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 11c | 880.65$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 27c | 864.85$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.15 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked No | 42c | 850.02$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.18 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b6…21b0backed No | 2c | 752.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked No | 2c | 752.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed No | 24c | 730.01$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.45 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 52c | 599.99$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 67c | 556.7$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.39 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…bd0fbacked No | 6c | 550.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 5c | 534.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 14c | 525.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 516.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 79c | 465.99$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0d…fa97backed Yes | 76c | 392.97$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 28c | 318.38$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.56 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…2251backed Yes | 76c | 311$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 33c | 259.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed Yes | 79c | 251.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed Yes | 30c | 221.82$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +12.6wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 6c | 191.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 10c | 172.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x030f…ffefbacked No | 16c | 172.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 70c | 169.15$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb0…5a3abacked Yes | 75c | 133.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…18f2backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…21b4backed No | 9c | 119.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…f5c0backed Yes | 55c | 107$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +9.1wins | +0.25per pick | 36cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x11f5…5526backed No | 62c | 104$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 75c | 103.88$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ead…14f8backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…293ebacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked No | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked No | 28c | 99.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…78ddbacked No | 25c | 84.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 71c | 82.11$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c97…fa05backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 70c | 62.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 23c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…2bc6backed No | 28c | 53.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 27c | 52.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 72c | 51.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5a…02eabacked Yes | 74c | 51.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd11a…ed7dbacked Yes | 78c | 40.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 32cpaid | +217.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 30c | 38.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961b…2b00backed No | 40c | 37.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…3cdfbacked Yes | 62c | 24.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…3513backed Yes | 72c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…2edfbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa9…045cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.