Commodities · resolved market
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x909bf9a58a1c15d045041f1c59dde7d040eaac98afb85515e9bc9365ebce2b59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x893b…a860backed Yes | 5c | 7,046$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 4c | 2,598$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 2,314$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.54 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 32c | 1,741$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…06e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,625$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 2c | 1,163$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 13c | 1,146$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.58 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 1,068$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.62 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…fa78backed No | 68c | 1,039$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8770…eb00backed Yes | 41c | 1,002$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…8d4ebacked No | 68c | 963.77$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4631…3ff9backed Yes | 17c | 930.33$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.36 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed No | 73c | 917.73$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.78 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x194a…3bb9backed Yes | 3c | 900$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 64c | 889.24$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x896d…319bbacked Yes | 4c | 882.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 8c | 869.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 18c | 784.94$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.46 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 35c | 748.66$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 718.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342b…d208backed Yes | 9c | 718.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked No | 66c | 693.09$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.12 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 11c | 673.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67c…30d0backed Yes | 8c | 626.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 554.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…0af0backed Yes | 18c | 541.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f4…a008backed Yes | 3c | 509$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea66…bcaabacked Yes | 32c | 506.13$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 35c | 474.86$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.64 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…52f6backed No | 66c | 456.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 63c | 450.07$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.19 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…2b3abacked Yes | 4c | 437.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53c…2293backed Yes | 33c | 431.09$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…7b2bbacked Yes | 34c | 425.55$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.47 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.40per pick | 48cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 15c | 387.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 18c | 361.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 333.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 77c | 329.39$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb935…204bbacked Yes | 7c | 326.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c3…00c8backed No | 71c | 325.41$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…8380backed Yes | 3c | 304.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 298.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3d…e38cbacked Yes | 14c | 293.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af5…82debacked No | 80c | 272.96$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…f748backed Yes | 24c | 257.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 8c | 256.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 245.97$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 74c | 226.01$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda45…5fa4backed Yes | 22c | 218.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…e046backed No | 63c | 198.73$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.73 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddb…9ffabacked Yes | 19c | 197.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9369…c867backed Yes | 23c | 196.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 171.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507b…0742backed No | 72c | 166.09$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4b…ba21backed Yes | 18c | 163.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked No | 65c | 153.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…9a97backed No | 75c | 149.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…9a1abacked No | 62c | 139$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…9915backed Yes | 11c | 136.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 78c | 136.56$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a79…59a8backed No | 55c | 135.16$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 37c | 134.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…05fdbacked No | 60c | 132.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d79…f037backed Yes | 40c | 131.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…0b8dbacked Yes | 13c | 128.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 65c | 125.54$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…e0afbacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d8…8e8ebacked Yes | 24c | 123.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 14c | 112.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…dbcabacked Yes | 19c | 106.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…faa0backed Yes | 16c | 104.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…3ea5backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4730…73e1backed Yes | 35c | 93.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 21c | 89.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…82a0backed Yes | 22c | 85.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…a587backed Yes | 35c | 76.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed No | 66c | 76.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…2899backed Yes | 17c | 72.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…4741backed No | 59c | 69.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 64c | 62.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +5.7wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x190d…5388backed Yes | 25c | 60.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 51c | 56.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 53.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf373…ab5fbacked Yes | 37c | 53.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 33c | 52.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd492…7469backed Yes | 35c | 50.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 60c | 49.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345f…48e5backed No | 65c | 48.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 24c | 48.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1e…f069backed Yes | 35c | 42.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceff…076fbacked Yes | 35c | 36.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…4ff5backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by March 31?this page
- Will gas hit (High) $3.50 by March 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $3.75 by March 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by March 31?No won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by March 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by March 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.05 by March 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.10 by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.