TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,399
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,507

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,399 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x893b…a860backed Yes5c7,046$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904f…50c6backed Yes4c2,598$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-90.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c2,314$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.541035.8%6 W · 97 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes32c1,741$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5521717.6%3 W · 14 L-4.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-76.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xd57f…06e7backed Yes1c1,625$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes2c1,163$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.121884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes13c1,146$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.5821015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes7c1,068$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.621306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b5…fa78backed No68c1,039$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.651154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8770…eb00backed Yes41c1,002$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7814…8d4ebacked No68c963.77$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.01520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-70.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4631…3ff9backed Yes17c930.33$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.362931%9 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ebb…0614backed No73c917.73$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.783030%9 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-43.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x194a…3bb9backed Yes3c900$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No64c889.24$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.32683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+49.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x896d…319bbacked Yes4c882.87$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes8c869.35$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.51267.7%2 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-87.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes18c784.94$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.46908.9%8 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes35c748.66$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2652123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-49.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c718.61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.942324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x342b…d208backed Yes9c718.01$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.19450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked No66c693.09$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.123050%15 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes11c673.45$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.889616.7%16 W · 80 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd67c…30d0backed Yes8c626.73$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c554.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71ab…0af0backed Yes18c541.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002536%9 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44f4…a008backed Yes3c509$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea66…bcaabacked Yes32c506.13$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.8840%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes35c474.86$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.6432023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…52f6backed No66c456.96$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.96250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No63c450.07$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.196937.7%26 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7736…2b3abacked Yes4c437.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53c…2293backed Yes33c431.09$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9960%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8001…7b2bbacked Yes34c425.55$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.47147.1%1 W · 13 L-5.7wins-0.40per pick48cpaid-85.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xec8e…39b0backed Yes15c387.76$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6080%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes18c361.51$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.332524%6 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes9c333.16$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7426413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No77c329.39$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.1215446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb935…204bbacked Yes7c326.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.453218.8%6 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-61.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c3…00c8backed No71c325.41$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.41145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc880…8380backed Yes3c304.35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes23c298.3$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0130839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a3d…e38cbacked Yes14c293.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-52.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2af5…82debacked No80c272.96$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbff…f748backed Yes24c257.98$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0490%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71ab…f015backed Yes8c256.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6113949.6%69 W · 70 L+20.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No75c245.97$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.8213858%80 W · 58 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No74c226.01$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9614849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda45…5fa4backed Yes22c218.28$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.026240.3%25 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed No64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x171e…e046backed No63c198.73$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.732138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ddb…9ffabacked Yes19c197.07$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.77812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick34cpaid-65.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9369…c867backed Yes23c196.35$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c171.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.81,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507b…0742backed No72c166.09$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.08742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick62cpaid-43.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e4b…ba21backed Yes18c163.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked No65c153.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.681414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-70.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0891…9a97backed No75c149.5$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.78475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…9a1abacked No62c139$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7313…9915backed Yes11c136.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No78c136.56$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.635337.7%20 W · 33 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-32.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a79…59a8backed No55c135.16$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes37c134.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-64.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x51ec…05fdbacked No60c132.31$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.53875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d79…f037backed Yes40c131.51$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b62…0b8dbacked Yes13c128.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.921546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No65c125.54$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6419419.1%37 W · 157 L-35.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-63.9%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x04d7…e0afbacked Yes20c125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04d8…8e8ebacked Yes24c123.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes14c112.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5140%0 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8e47…dbcabacked Yes19c106.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.961338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-35%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x460c…faa0backed Yes16c104.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.21119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-60.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe782…3ea5backed No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-71%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4730…73e1backed Yes35c93.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes21c89.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.643511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-54.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8643…82a0backed Yes22c85.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.88911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick35cpaid-73.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b6f…a587backed Yes35c76.83$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-64.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2214…2fe9backed No66c76.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.021090%9 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick58cpaid+73.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4f9b…2899backed Yes17c72.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122119%4 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-62.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d60…4741backed No59c69.39$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1964…5e04backed No64c62.74$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.742391.3%21 W · 2 L+5.7wins+0.25per pick67cpaid+44.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x190d…5388backed Yes25c60.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.361625%4 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes36c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.362147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked No51c56.55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.713268.8%22 W · 10 L+6.2wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+164.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes29c53.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6330718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf373…ab5fbacked Yes37c53.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes33c52.84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5411139.6%44 W · 67 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd492…7469backed Yes35c50.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.671118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x723e…083ebacked No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.41040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No60c49.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8824126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x345f…48e5backed No65c48.47$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes24c48.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6318637.6%70 W · 116 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e1e…f069backed Yes35c42.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceff…076fbacked Yes35c36.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.072850%14 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2103…4ff5backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1190%0 W · 19 L-5.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.738353%44 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x254c…7678backed No68c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.621566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.