TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Athleticsof Houston Astros, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$356,541
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$363,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $356,541 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 319 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf665…b45ebacked Houston Astros51c113,464$57,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,763.65425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Athletics49c37,068$18,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,904.736,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfed8…4388backed Athletics50c33,097$16,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,548.611464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Houston Astros50c29,799$14,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,899.5638148.6%185 W · 196 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Houston Astros50c29,319$14,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,659.6627452.6%144 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Athletics53c23,465$12,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,924.951,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Athletics51c19,638$10,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,573.4865050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Athletics50c16,541$8,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,270.551,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8cb3…8ed1backed Athletics50c14,957$7,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,478.617048.6%34 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe5…b317backed Houston Astros51c13,951$7,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,114.48450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aba…4961backed Athletics49c13,572$6,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,921.521136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Houston Astros51c13,322$6,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,794.1919239.1%75 W · 117 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0bfc…6762backed Houston Astros51c11,865$6,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,089.771464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+35.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Athletics65c11,597$7,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,071.1421656.5%122 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0005,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros38c5,581$2,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,136.122,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Athletics51c5,237$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,557.123036.1%83 W · 147 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Athletics49c5,236$2,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,670.241,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c03…d894backed Athletics50c4,753$2,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,376.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics50c4,263$2,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,131.521,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Athletics49c4,169$2,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,126.0932152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics49c3,955$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,016.5412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Athletics50c3,368$1,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,684.0867849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Athletics71c3,311$2,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.9334164.2%219 W · 122 L+22.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed Houston Astros50c3,126$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.1613254.5%72 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Athletics54c3,100$1,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.4918056.1%101 W · 79 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Houston Astros1c2,960$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.511,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Athletics50c2,801$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,400.682657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros32c2,628$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.9710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Athletics49c2,576$1,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,313.1815753.5%84 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Houston Astros50c2,497$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.582,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Athletics51c2,427$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.992,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb61f…9958backed Houston Astros1c2,387$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9927213.6%37 W · 235 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8a…8723backed Athletics58c2,310$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.254163.4%26 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Athletics55c2,158$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.2311547%54 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Athletics49c2,121$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.291,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Athletics50c2,077$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.136,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Athletics50c2,067$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.6532348.9%158 W · 165 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Athletics52c2,008$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.819255.4%51 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Athletics50c1,839$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.3792046%423 W · 497 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8a…02acbacked Athletics49c1,798$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.057746.8%36 W · 41 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Houston Astros54c1,789$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.5336649.2%180 W · 186 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Athletics49c1,778$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.9939351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros42c1,778$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.258,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed Athletics55c1,646$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.1718860.1%113 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+237.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Athletics49c1,643$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.477051.4%36 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Athletics50c1,564$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.551,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Houston Astros49c1,555$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.3567250.1%337 W · 335 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Houston Astros10c1,325$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.321,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Athletics74c1,285$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.91,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f75…df7fbacked Houston Astros17c1,254$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.522751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e8…5169backed Houston Astros50c1,145$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.277262.5%45 W · 27 L+10.2wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+36.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Athletics49c1,043$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.7528646.2%132 W · 154 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Houston Astros29c1,027$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.791,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Houston Astros52c990.78$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.727948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Athletics49c984.35$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.022748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef46…b0eabacked Houston Astros52c971.2$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.025435.2%19 W · 35 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Athletics49c949.96$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.4896133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Houston Astros10c946$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.61,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d91…bb2abacked Athletics51c818.35$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.992152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Athletics68c805.92$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.1214328.7%41 W · 102 L-11.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-32.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Athletics53c802.01$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.9416351.5%84 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Houston Astros50c776$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38832350.5%163 W · 160 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Athletics50c738.04$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.795,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Houston Astros50c689.67$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.8446749.5%231 W · 236 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf16…9c6fbacked Houston Astros51c684.13$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.91560%9 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40ff…9d91backed Houston Astros21c680.26$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.120443.1%88 W · 116 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Houston Astros6c664.62$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.256513.8%9 W · 56 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-53.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Athletics49c644.38$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.0845246.2%209 W · 243 L-18.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Houston Astros50c562.6$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.350751.7%262 W · 245 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb7f…824bbacked Houston Astros49c510.12$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.966764.2%43 W · 24 L+10.6wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Athletics50c507.78$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.8931149.2%153 W · 158 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Houston Astros19c500.74$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1418239.6%72 W · 110 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Athletics49c499.83$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.9224348.1%117 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c50…2de6backed Houston Astros50c483.06$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.5312154.5%66 W · 55 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Athletics51c475.78$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.131,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d29…c9eebacked Athletics61c473.51$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.952352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8900…a444backed Athletics49c432.57$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.533360.6%20 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c4…0d90backed Houston Astros50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005429.6%16 W · 38 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x505f…8eadbacked Houston Astros50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003036.7%11 W · 19 L-6.3wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-36.6%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Houston Astros50c391.88$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.981,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8f…5259backed Houston Astros50c363.75$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8812257.4%70 W · 52 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Athletics50c356.73$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.856,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Athletics51c339.12$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.7928350.2%142 W · 141 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba31…d1dfbacked Houston Astros49c338.6$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.5130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked Houston Astros50c334.82$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.4112253.3%65 W · 57 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb89b…a39dbacked Houston Astros50c314.28$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.1410148.5%49 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Houston Astros49c311.38$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.5819356.5%109 W · 84 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef5c…6ababacked Athletics70c304.63$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.64463.6%28 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c31…ebdbbacked Athletics50c302.26$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.1317448.9%85 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked Houston Astros50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15035245.5%160 W · 192 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb90…1917backed Houston Astros50c294.69$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.355848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked Athletics51c291.18$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.687128.2%20 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3d8…c0f2backed Houston Astros50c291$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.56857.4%39 W · 29 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Houston Astros50c290.58$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5138245.5%174 W · 208 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Houston Astros51c284.39$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0414047.1%66 W · 74 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Athletics50c283$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.575049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Houston Astros11c281.07$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.781,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed Athletics49c276.97$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.25944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18c6…a4dbbacked Houston Astros50c252.2$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.121057.6%121 W · 89 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.