MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x869a17a521e95218c03ad9914cfaaef5b2f5b0faafb9ed6222fe591c0be116bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Houston Astros, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros | 26c | 1,441$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.92 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Houston Astros | 7c | 524.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…e9f4backed Athletics | 62c | 390.88$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.53 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 63c | 197.64$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…5d07backed Athletics | 62c | 195.44$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…15b9backed Athletics | 62c | 195.44$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Athletics | 61c | 168.79$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Houston Astros | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Houston Astros | 37c | 137.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 60c | 135$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed Houston Astros | 40c | 120.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 38c | 97.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Athletics | 59c | 89.14$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1483backed Athletics | 63c | 77.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Athletics | 60c | 71.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Houston Astros | 40c | 69.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe46d…8b87backed Houston Astros | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Houston Astros | 40c | 48.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Athletics | 60c | 44.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Athletics | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…0a3bbacked Athletics | 65c | 30.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Athletics | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Athletics | 64c | 19.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-9.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.