MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2749665066e8a50e7137eaea2af0b1b128df42f9e1d24ccfd9d9541871dd1af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 62c | 8,000$4,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,079.86 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 55c | 6,374$3,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,505.68 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 39c | 5,544$2,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,174.14 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Over | 45c | 3,223$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.53 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Over | 44c | 3,029$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,696.02 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 42c | 2,902$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,694.57 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 56c | 2,222$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.32 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 58c | 2,113$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.23 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 1,102$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.97 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 44c | 933.66$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.85 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 57c | 657.59$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.82 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 57c | 600.63$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.95 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…7ecebacked Under | 56c | 581.69$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 46c | 577$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.32 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 43c | 488.36$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.37 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 38c | 400$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 56c | 369.99$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.19 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…1fe2backed Under | 48c | 266.9$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 57c | 266.4$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.83 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Over | 54c | 243.07$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.3 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Over | 46c | 234.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.89 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 56c | 216.51$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 56c | 216.51$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 56c | 216.51$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 39c | 156.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 130$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 45c | 118.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 56c | 116$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 115.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 57c | 109.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Under | 57c | 105.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Over | 57c | 100.84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 133 | 61.7%82 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Over | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 43c | 96.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…b79fbacked Over | 44c | 93.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 53c | 87.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…2687backed Under | 57c | 85.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 52c | 85.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…24eebacked Under | 55c | 65.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…49f7backed Over | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 45c | 49.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90cb…4622backed Under | 57c | 47.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…0a3bbacked Under | 42c | 47.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 56c | 46.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Over | 47c | 45.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Over | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…5ab3backed Under | 56c | 42.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Over | 47c | 39.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…da99backed Under | 43c | 39.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 42c | 33.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 55c | 32.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…908dbacked Under | 36c | 31.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 45c | 31.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…4132backed Under | 46c | 31.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Under | 47c | 29.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Under | 57c | 25.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x104b…ed6bbacked Over | 44c | 24.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Under | 57c | 19.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 162 | 56.2%91 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 70c | 15.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-9.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.