Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on January 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x606a8b7b0ce56ce9b6a513fee1a5be19168f41fc079b78718a231c093e8cd71b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa809…ad85backed Yes | 70c | 240$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.03 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 65c | 200$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 12c | 151.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff8…434fbacked No | 74c | 150.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.68 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…8acbbacked Yes | 50c | 146.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.01 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 23c | 131.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.89 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 50c | 99.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 39c | 90.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…328ebacked Yes | 22c | 81.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 29c | 71.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…f81dbacked No | 77c | 69.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 21c | 56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 77c | 55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 51c | 53.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9355…4bf4backed Yes | 50c | 52.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 22c | 47.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x979c…b563backed No | 66c | 45.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b1…ef08backed Yes | 64c | 42.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 37.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…249abacked Yes | 42c | 36.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 38c | 34.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…d92fbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 25.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e7…05e6backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 77c | 19.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7036…1482backed No | 77c | 15.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on January 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 56°F or higher on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on January 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.