Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Sholdon Daniels be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce2dc1bcbca8c4d96a02f4c3d084c675190700d27c913cb7dad31e3759ce2f72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 58c | 1,030$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.17 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes | 69c | 976$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 31c | 481$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…3eaabacked No | 26c | 469$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 75c | 450.18$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.44 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed No | 31c | 446$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes | 74c | 421$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 25c | 309.14$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.61 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed Yes | 72c | 250$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 74c | 223$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 59c | 205.03$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed No | 26c | 175$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 169.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 24c | 162.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.51 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed No | 31c | 158$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.75per pick | 26cpaid | +311.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked Yes | 15c | 144.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 24c | 142.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 28c | 131.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.18 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked Yes | 72c | 120$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 27c | 111.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed Yes | 69c | 109$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…944cbacked No | 20c | 96.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 79.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 79.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked No | 20c | 77.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 18c | 71.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 18c | 68.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 28c | 60.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 18c | 58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 78c | 55.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 49c | 51.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…4463backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 43.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4f…58c7backed Yes | 74c | 39.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked Yes | 73c | 37.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 72c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 79c | 20.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e8…cd3ebacked Yes | 73c | 17.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sholdon Daniels be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?this page
- Will Everett Jackson be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?Yes won
- Will Gregor Heise be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?No won
- Will Nils Walker be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.