Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Gregor Heise be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e610816c441b2d252bda50aa01d4d2c98cf0e6efc97177143b0d9082f15ed11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 2c | 2,117$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 17c | 731$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed Yes | 17c | 645$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 22c | 550$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…01b9backed Yes | 31c | 504.14$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 17c | 495$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…47d3backed Yes | 10c | 368.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 75c | 365.29$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.37 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 17c | 340$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 17c | 303$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 78c | 280$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0367…1c15backed No | 78c | 270$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 17c | 258$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 24c | 238$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 120.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…3646backed No | 30c | 103.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 22cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 40.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 35.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 75c | 32.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 79c | 20.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gregor Heise be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?this page
- Will Everett Jackson be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?Yes won
- Will Nils Walker be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?No won
- Will Sholdon Daniels be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.