AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a9f2e581438d70aa64dc664e35d1cc5332c1801cab295c64de719d9feebdd21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 66c | 4,570$3,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,531.27 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 77c | 4,019$3,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.23 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 72c | 3,297$2,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.39 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 58c | 1,823$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.64 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 36c | 1,822$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.65 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 59c | 1,715$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.77 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 67c | 1,394$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.74 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 1,120$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.77 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 47c | 928$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.05 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 19c | 826.42$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.14 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 39c | 781.94$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.14 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 52c | 718.24$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.05 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f73…acefbacked Yes | 71c | 605.81$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.06 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 76c | 456.64$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.64 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 440.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes | 72c | 416.52$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.34 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 24c | 399.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 340$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 56c | 333.24$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.73 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 26c | 229.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 45c | 228$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 28c | 216.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 17c | 194.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 15c | 172.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 71c | 149$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 146.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 39c | 142.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…76aebacked No | 30c | 134.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 58c | 120$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 109.12$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…5fb3backed Yes | 39c | 100.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bc…335fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked No | 70c | 97.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc724…c6b2backed Yes | 42c | 95.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…c6b1backed Yes | 72c | 92.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e73…5413backed No | 27c | 91.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e09…c25dbacked No | 16c | 84.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6b…5cd9backed Yes | 76c | 78.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 37c | 69.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 72c | 69.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…1f39backed Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e5…b7aabacked No | 76c | 65.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…d288backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…80cbbacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d9…e8c1backed Yes | 76c | 48.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked Yes | 78c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 67c | 42.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 75c | 41.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc8…5709backed No | 32c | 39.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eff…8897backed No | 27c | 38.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f2…2fc1backed Yes | 71c | 32.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 47c | 28.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 77c | 17.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?this page
- Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.