AI · resolved market
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x334054db35f8a617baeab025f4a59f0ec2981309156a06e3de905926215c0c20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 27c | 500.95$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.62 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa277…1182backed Yes | 57c | 456.56$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 28c | 407.53$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 26c | 300.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 28c | 267$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 222.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 182.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 39c | 169.21$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 21c | 145.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 37c | 139.43$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc724…c6b2backed Yes | 43c | 138.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 131.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa46…4a23backed Yes | 42c | 123.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 38c | 119.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 116.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 107$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…5cffbacked Yes | 15c | 100.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…5fb3backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 46c | 92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 34c | 91.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 77.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 42c | 76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x608e…d69abacked Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 22c | 54.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3406…6ce0backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 26c | 38.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 56c | 35.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 56c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 39c | 31.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 40c | 27.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 24.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 68c | 17.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?this page
- Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes won
- Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.