Venezuela · resolved market
Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff38c00bc06ebdfc3fb9397a68ee4930ff0f3c46e8ba65878a13dd189a5ba388
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde1b…ccc9backed Yes | 5c | 3,047$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.04 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 1,177$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.64 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed Yes | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 8c | 943.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed No | 61c | 800.87$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 16c | 793.23$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.39 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +38%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 12c | 763.64$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked No | 58c | 336.17$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.86 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked Yes | 49c | 308.25$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…9e88backed No | 56c | 300$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 42c | 299.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 50c | 291.09$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.55 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed No | 40c | 246.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.51 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x76dd…0e54backed Yes | 53c | 221.44$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 13c | 206.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed No | 39c | 200.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 56c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91a7…c755backed Yes | 41c | 194.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 31c | 183.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d12…ab54backed No | 55c | 180.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 17c | 175.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 37c | 170$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae71…8488backed Yes | 59c | 169.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…7d80backed No | 51c | 136.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad05…fb3bbacked No | 57c | 131.9$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…43e2backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…fe1cbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 53c | 95.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2010…18febacked Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 70c | 89.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked No | 47c | 70.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…7061backed Yes | 59c | 55.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…966bbacked No | 56c | 50.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc5…b066backed Yes | 49c | 50.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…1c8bbacked No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 63c | 46.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa7…9e84backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd2…9ab0backed Yes | 50c | 42.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b49…acc4backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…0e19backed No | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5918…3d74backed No | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 40c | 36.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe865…3f63backed No | 39c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +158.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac07…2d0dbacked No | 54c | 34.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…bf2abacked Yes | 59c | 34.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2d…5d6cbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 47c | 31.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9380…cf36backed No | 70c | 30.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…1d49backed No | 51c | 28.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…eceebacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe546…28a6backed Yes | 47c | 23.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 50c | 23.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5112…ef8bbacked No | 64c | 23.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…8fb6backed No | 76c | 15.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Charles Myers visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Dan Caine visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will JD Vance visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Jared Kushner visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will John Ratcliffe visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Marco Rubio visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Nicolás Maduro visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Richard Grenell visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.