Venezuela · resolved market
Will Marco Rubio visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x364b2addcd3df6e0484011b6f10afd75b8a624249c756fe7a47b4b0ab90e22a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38cc…425bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,328$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…7bbfbacked Yes | 15c | 1,153$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked No | 77c | 1,137$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.33 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 598.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe420…2defbacked Yes | 33c | 370$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4424…4cc6backed Yes | 10c | 296.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 63c | 224$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +252.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae2…b997backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed No | 79c | 85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…41eebacked Yes | 26c | 65.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 72c | 50.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b15…341ebacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marco Rubio visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Charles Myers visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Dan Caine visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will JD Vance visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Jared Kushner visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will John Ratcliffe visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Nicolás Maduro visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Richard Grenell visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.