TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$132,241
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,901

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,241 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe2ef…e1edbacked Yes8c9,536$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-80%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977c…45f0backed Yes5c8,817$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.760%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf58c…d588backed Yes1c6,270$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.66140%0 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x55f1…842dbacked Yes29c5,672$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.33837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes26c5,604$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.4121035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes38c4,344$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,640.177020%14 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc327…a208backed No75c3,590$2,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.02837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd029…4fc1backed No63c2,502$1,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.56966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+128.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf07…39d8backed Yes16c2,216$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.011323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes6c1,811$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.354157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes35c1,805$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.215735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes23c1,600$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.211425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0caf…8794backed Yes5c1,377$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes6c1,339$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2547938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes25c1,225$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.1714337.8%54 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes21c1,117$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22936945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes32c1,099$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.2517824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe64e…c86fbacked No78c1,071$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.291457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes16c982.71$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.07785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.47per pick39cpaid+165%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf155…76bdbacked No74c930.68$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.674100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x935d…08ffbacked Yes10c894.33$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.961118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed No61c775.54$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.66850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa652…8e90backed Yes38c665.69$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.261020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-67.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29a1…c29fbacked Yes16c633.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3437…f8f3backed Yes32c630.94$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.734341.9%18 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c621.64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.743042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No61c600$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.412636.5%46 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No60c600$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.48442.9%36 W · 48 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4734…60b1backed No72c564.36$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.611464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01de…a558backed Yes5c551.6$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.613540%14 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No77c544.51$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.5425632.8%84 W · 172 L-24.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xadaf…6eb9backed No74c533.32$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.32742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31c1…bc19backed No61c519.99$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes35c505.13$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1794918.4%9 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No45c503.04$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.161258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+46%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21d5…6f93backed Yes3c479.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.436016.7%10 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-67%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f7b…68f3backed Yes14c438.42$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.95425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No24c428.57$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.717035.7%25 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+71.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes5c428.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214721.3%10 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed Yes4c400$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.72133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fd8…af91backed Yes7c400$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed Yes31c400$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.22055%11 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes26c388.86$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.715047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe981…1faebacked Yes4c362.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes10c329.07$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0612533.6%42 W · 83 L-12.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes18c326.08$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.852737%10 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d35…23c1backed Yes36c310$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.91250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c8…a75fbacked Yes25c300$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.22860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+24.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes24c300$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.48435.7%30 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06df…3b05backed No62c300$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes17c295$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1516418.9%31 W · 133 L-21.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x9d34…15a1backed No71c281.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.71966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+87.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7cd4…5c6abacked Yes49c240.46$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid+7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf28f…841abacked No54c239.13$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.13633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No55c215.72$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.074353.5%23 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b9a…f6e9backed No64c210.18$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.921250%6 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes20c208.83$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0222019.5%43 W · 177 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes16c203.18$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.942437.5%9 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+2,281.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee21…3721backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcecf…e206backed No71c200$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.11216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-72.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b3b…8c8dbacked Yes34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.74942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb82…0318backed No62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.42065%13 W · 7 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+40.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7371…cadebacked Yes37c199.98$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.992035%7 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fa4…4188backed Yes6c187.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac2d…a9c4backed Yes45c175.72$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.071520%3 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-42.3%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes19c165.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.581,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes36c165.15$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4525122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2272…76bcbacked No64c165$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.06728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x279c…2b82backed No74c161.5$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.852814.3%4 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1964…5e04backed No64c156.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.741457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes22c150.24$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.32397.7%3 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-89.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b0d…9501backed Yes17c145$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.65520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-74%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf579…9989backed Yes30c141.62$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.45875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x272c…7f07backed Yes30c141.57$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.445735.1%20 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No71c134.29$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9972935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4541…30d3backed No47c126$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.781533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed No74c118.5$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.913452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4784…5723backed Yes9c116.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes27c112.69$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8919120.9%40 W · 151 L-20.8wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-57.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9143…7a54backed No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1047…763abacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.51533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0da4…eddebacked Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.52755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0be…17fabacked No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ae5…6079backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-88.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215523.6%13 W · 42 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e8e…4cacbacked No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73bc…335fbacked Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.61127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-52.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8998…2707backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5e2…bd16backed No67c99.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No61c98.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.612176.2%16 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked No75c97.81$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.16475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+86.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c90$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5857426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes12c86.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.272110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes14c86.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.283438.2%13 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a38…36e2backed No61c81.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+65.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f90…e17fbacked No54c80$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.721546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed No79c80$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.81942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.