AI · resolved market
Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81f3cdb2b5211a3aa1678c3cb74924643c30b0a59f6fc53dc568c0843fbfe9b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe857…a0a4backed No | 6c | 3,080$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 4c | 2,501$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 10c | 2,146$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.66 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 9c | 1,500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fef…ee82backed No | 5c | 1,461$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…af5abacked No | 1c | 1,400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed No | 2c | 1,045$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…784ebacked No | 8c | 925.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 2c | 897.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccd…0b58backed No | 4c | 808.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 7c | 802.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…40fcbacked No | 7c | 625.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4043…e220backed No | 3c | 594.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad8…5b77backed No | 5c | 570$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…ac6ebacked No | 9c | 461.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked No | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 289.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…1f45backed No | 13c | 284.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 5c | 281.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 7c | 223.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 9c | 220.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…bf3bbacked No | 8c | 210$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…3834backed No | 22c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x176a…a140backed No | 6c | 173.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…bc0abacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026?this page
- Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?No won
- Gemini 3.2 released by May 18, 2026?No won
- Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?Yes won
- Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?Yes won
- Gemini 3.2 released by May 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.