AI · resolved market
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x359c1af87793d6637a8505dd3cfec6deda66b5d99b9ef622ce769cd42f0571ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 3c | 7,787$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.32 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x176a…a140backed No | 1c | 4,222$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…e86dbacked No | 3c | 3,100$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 19c | 2,643$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.19 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 5c | 2,579$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.96 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 5c | 2,012$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.81 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…202dbacked Yes | 77c | 1,256$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.09 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 1,199$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…0fc7backed Yes | 75c | 1,162$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.02 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 10c | 1,141$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 7c | 1,081$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed No | 7c | 964.79$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 3c | 934.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 20c | 900$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 80c | 880$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 826.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 14c | 637.12$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 4c | 635.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 78c | 597.26$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 5c | 509.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 3c | 496.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…92aebacked Yes | 75c | 476.45$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked No | 4c | 389.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 25c | 368.67$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 14c | 360$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 25c | 358.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.71 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 5c | 357.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed No | 8c | 328.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc8…dcccbacked No | 8c | 314.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…bcdfbacked No | 4c | 313.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 21c | 304$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 278$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 12c | 235.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked No | 27c | 200.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5092…0719backed Yes | 72c | 180.14$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…a558backed No | 32c | 177.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 26c | 144.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9974…2840backed Yes | 70c | 142.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7657…18cdbacked Yes | 73c | 137.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…3692backed No | 30c | 136.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 25c | 130.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 51c | 125$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa056…0f70backed No | 26c | 120.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…4347backed No | 12c | 102.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b88…86c4backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82e…ad17backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 76c | 98.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 23c | 91.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked No | 16c | 66.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…3685backed No | 24c | 54.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 22c | 52.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 73c | 49.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6acc…dacfbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 75c | 17.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747b…a2d4backed Yes | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?this page
- Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?No won
- Gemini 3.2 released by May 18, 2026?No won
- Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026?Yes won
- Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?Yes won
- Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?Yes won
- Gemini 3.2 released by May 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.