AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88b2a7dda2fdc3980466dfe446eff29cdf42b097f7b8adf210d62bad22cf718f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 79c | 2,959$2,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.06 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed Yes | 46c | 2,093$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 26c | 1,737$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.95 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 32c | 1,095$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.86 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb240…024fbacked Yes | 2c | 934.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b5…9782backed Yes | 15c | 889.04$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked Yes | 15c | 774$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc199…c67cbacked Yes | 17c | 748.21$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 11c | 713$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked Yes | 11c | 707$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…a432backed No | 54c | 707$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…6741backed No | 54c | 695$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked No | 54c | 691$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.86 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 11c | 678$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…5c99backed Yes | 28c | 676.21$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 20c | 655.77$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.9 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.74 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb140…dcdfbacked Yes | 10c | 475.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed No | 62c | 472.69$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.62 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 13c | 450.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 366$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked Yes | 32c | 345.53$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83f…35fbbacked Yes | 33c | 300.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed Yes | 15c | 287$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…12a6backed No | 74c | 285.07$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae0…053cbacked Yes | 41c | 246.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 215.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed No | 76c | 207.36$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 24c | 191.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1689…0745backed Yes | 20c | 169.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 27c | 165.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 31c | 163.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 159.7$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…27cfbacked Yes | 33c | 149.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 19c | 141.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 68c | 139.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 13c | 138.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 36c | 138.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc8…5709backed Yes | 20c | 120.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed No | 76c | 104.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…545dbacked Yes | 31c | 103.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…5f59backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 71c | 90.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…ba7bbacked Yes | 27c | 80.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 77.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…366bbacked Yes | 18c | 72.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e5…2722backed Yes | 37c | 69.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 73c | 68.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 79c | 62.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x83e7…4aebbacked No | 73c | 58.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 64c | 56.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…2cdbbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x893b…3bd3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…583fbacked Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3bb1backed Yes | 37c | 47.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52c7…1c61backed Yes | 36c | 47.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 29c | 46.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dc…b71bbacked Yes | 37c | 46.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…6c96backed Yes | 24c | 45.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed No | 65c | 30.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…909dbacked Yes | 40c | 29.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 70c | 29.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33e1…f7e5backed No | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb81…4563backed No | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked No | 79c | 25.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed No | 68c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…b8f1backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 71c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e8…2903backed No | 73c | 14.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30?this page
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $600b and $610b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $610b and $620b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $620b and $630b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $630b and $640b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on April 30?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $600b on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.