AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc264391c0d4bce49fb833bfae127d7e8f140c231c34022d702e1e68ff03116b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes | 57c | 684.19$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 10c | 676.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 12c | 657$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc95…0b9cbacked Yes | 52c | 581.34$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 13c | 507$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…2261backed Yes | 13c | 507$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 16c | 394$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Yes | 16c | 386$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 40c | 364.79$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.41 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3bb1backed Yes | 24c | 298.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 44c | 298.11$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.75 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 9c | 274.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…1203backed Yes | 19c | 244.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5441…7c4ebacked Yes | 72c | 234.74$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 14c | 162.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.88 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 78c | 162.34$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddb2…745abacked Yes | 18c | 158.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…07f4backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 122.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…d9bfbacked Yes | 50c | 122.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…20ebbacked Yes | 50c | 87.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 82.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 70.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe917…9612backed No | 24c | 58.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 71c | 58.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ea…02edbacked Yes | 21c | 57.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 51.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae0…053cbacked Yes | 65c | 50.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 29c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 80c | 46.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 44.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…c441backed Yes | 45c | 27.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed No | 65c | 25.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b25…b74abacked No | 79c | 13.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on April 30?this page
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $600b and $610b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $610b and $620b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $620b and $630b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $630b and $640b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on April 30?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $600b on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.