Golf · resolved market
WM Phoenix Open: Hole in One on 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddbc82fc37a71a223f1b06b24e71ed370acda5b6e77eaf64fba0fff94b12cf7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Golf | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 295 | 3.7%11 W · 284 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 11c | 625.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 19c | 447.7$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 19c | 439.3$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb00…2c0fbacked Yes | 17c | 299.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 12c | 254$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked No | 78c | 243.66$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 80c | 230$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe124…e888backed Yes | 31c | 161$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 29c | 125$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 42c | 123.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 22c | 90.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…169ebacked No | 61c | 73.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 35c | 71.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Yes | 40c | 69.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 79c | 57.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7305…5912backed No | 69c | 31.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…3ba6backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…14eebacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce74…72f4backed Yes | 44c | 22.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 80c | 21.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…0df9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.