TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$254,935
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$258,229

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,935 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaab9…a08dbacked No22c16,039$3,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,527.6310950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes77c12,448$9,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,915.5218425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes78c11,433$8,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,515.167458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed No2c10,167$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.864330.2%13 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c7,700$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6713714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8509…dee2backed No22c7,379$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bf2…15aebacked No1c7,166$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a01…7c0abacked Yes69c6,374$4,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.13633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c12…79d9backed Yes77c5,311$4,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.34933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff05…fad7backed No0c4,912$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.85293.4%1 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-86.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes78c4,608$3,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.1319236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes66c3,456$2,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.51850%9 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+28%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No4c3,113$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.461435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ef9…7e63backed No22c3,019$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.1880%0 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked No17c2,664$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.823650%18 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No28c2,500$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.62035%7 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ec…d820backed No11c2,298$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes66c2,056$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.1519348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04db…a2dcbacked Yes73c1,861$1,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked No29c1,740$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.752250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d24…1ac2backed No22c1,727$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.77540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes77c1,720$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.111936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd489…ff2cbacked No1c1,589$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0067…446fbacked No2c1,252$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes76c1,199$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.82425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-67.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2968…ce4cbacked No18c1,110$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001926.3%5 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick13cpaid+145.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No24c1,099$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.0244111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes73c1,091$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.785339.6%21 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-30.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No30c1,078$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.936833.8%23 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c1,041$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.131,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1808737.9%33 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No19c801.7$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.58728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes75c775.15$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.6119328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No27c756.34$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.214847.9%23 W · 25 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No25c755.89$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.542751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0218…f9babacked Yes79c755.38$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3869…0e3cbacked No24c749.59$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4044…8de5backed No19c723.05$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.631861.1%11 W · 7 L+4.7wins+0.26per pick35cpaid+62.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2117…9bedbacked Yes80c720.29$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b4a…77f2backed No34c702.61$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83cd…dbadbacked No2c668$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8924…c8d2backed Yes61c644.55$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.92911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-81.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77fd…b6c8backed No23c633.3$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.99650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x328d…f7a9backed Yes69c631.59$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.06580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No25c623.13$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.836930.4%21 W · 48 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-46.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8a7…46c4backed No22c596.95$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.97911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick39cpaid-84.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No20c583.27$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.323414.7%5 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc9…b297backed No6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2adc…e731backed No8c491.87$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd97…776cbacked No2c491.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd87d…816abacked No3c458.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes52c443.99$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.84933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c18…9b55backed No18c435.86$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd323…f3d2backed Yes56c410.03$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36f8…b835backed Yes76c394.74$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed Yes80c375.4$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.41963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No17c367$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.071227.4%9 W · 113 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No6c361.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.52827.3%6 W · 76 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2d5…dfa7backed No27c359.97$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes77c357$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.114845.8%22 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No31c353.31$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.697656.6%43 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb288…fa0fbacked No23c349.22$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823363.6%21 W · 12 L+6.7wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+41.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked Yes62c332.97$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.532035%7 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-45.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2db2…9dc4backed Yes77c324.68$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes75c309.99$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.495527.3%15 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5527…4e68backed No19c307.35$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No29c306.81$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-51.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8f9…8f83backed Yes70c293.18$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.951145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc4…f310backed No19c264.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No38c262.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010324.3%25 W · 78 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No5c255.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.721258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No28c247.21$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.38650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5fa…0479backed Yes76c244.2$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-43.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe04…3c60backed Yes62c242.69$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.37742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-37.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc754…b24ebacked Yes80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick75cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes15c200$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1703514.3%5 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked No7c197.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.27110%0 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No26c197.21$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.575834.5%20 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked No17c192.02$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.161225%3 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-47.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes79c192$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.321546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc21…8e31backed No65c184.92$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-64.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed No11c183.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.845347.2%25 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked No25c180.72$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.356616.7%11 W · 55 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No28c179.98$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2933618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes59c178.95$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.15837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes79c175$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.332236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes70c158.7$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.471861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x219f…7420backed No13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b36…cfdebacked Yes78c153.85$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.85540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes68c146.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.583735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0e…2f90backed Yes68c146.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.19450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed Yes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d9…825ebacked No15c140$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked No23c133.3$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.66825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x766f…37dfbacked No17c129.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd60a…90a7backed Yes79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3890…41a3backed Yes79c125$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.251241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c79…1d00backed Yes61c124.61$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.241330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick25cpaid-38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed No19c115.16$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.881040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b39…68bcbacked Yes76c110.42$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.